Do Nuclear Weapons Promote International Security?

Do Nuclear Weapons Promote International Security?
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October 15, 2023
Since their inception, nuclear weapons have been a source of profound fascination and dread. As devices of unimaginable power, they have altered the fabric of international relations and diplomacy. These weapons have been extolled as the ultimate peacekeepers and reviled as the ultimate threats to humanity.
The research question at the heart of this analysis is: Do nuclear weapons promote international security? This is not a simple yes-or-no query but requires understanding the multifaceted arguments surrounding nuclear weapons and international relations. Accordingly, the spectrum of viewpoints on this issue is vast. At one end, we have scholars like Gray, who delves into the intricacies of deterrence theory and the nuances of nuclear strategy. Gray underscores the significance of understanding strategic deterrents' diverse and evolving nature in international relations, especially in nuclear weaponry. Though terrifying, he paints a picture of a world where nuclear weapons may offer a unique form of strategic balance.[Gray, C.S., 2000. Deterrence and the Nature of Strategy. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 11(2), pp.17-26. p. 17]
Conversely, Ward Wilson represents a more critical stance. Challenging the conventional wisdom surrounding nuclear deterrence, Wilson posits that many traditional beliefs about nuclear weapons' effectiveness as deterrents might be rooted more in myth than reality. He contends that, far from being ultimate guarantors of peace, nuclear weapons might be far less effective in preventing war than traditionally believed.[Wilson, W., 2008. The myth of nuclear deterrence. Nonproliferation Review, 15(3), pp.421-439. p. 425]
Between these two viewpoints lies a vast array of arguments, counterarguments, theories, and critiques. The journey through this debate is neither linear nor simplistic, but it is essential in our quest to understand the role of nuclear weapons in the landscape of international security.
The Argument For Nuclear Weapons Promoting International Security
Deterrence Theory
Deterrence theory, a central tenet of international relations, posits that states can be dissuaded from committing aggressive acts if they perceive the retaliatory costs to be prohibitive. Rooted in the calculations of rational actors, this principle asserts that nations will refrain from confrontations when potential reprisals could lead to intolerable losses.[Krepon, M., 2003. The stability-instability paradox, misperception, and escalation control in South Asia. Prospects for peace in South Asia, 1, pp.261-279. p. 3]
While the concept of deterrence is age-old, the nuclear age added new dimensions and gravity. The unparalleled destructive capacity of nuclear weapons reshaped the calculus of global warfare, making the imperatives of avoiding confrontations all the more stark.
As mentioned earlier, Gray's exploration touches upon the multifaceted intricacies of deterrence within nuclear strategy. Gray delineates how strategy is inherently dynamic and often paradoxical, characteristics that become even more pronounced in the nuclear realm. To Gray, nuclear deterrence is not merely about dissuading conflict; it envelops signaling, credibility, and the nuanced interplay of geopolitical considerations.[Gray, p. 22]
Case Studies Supporting the Argument
The Cold War provides a palpable testament to nuclear deterrence in practice. This protracted geopolitical tension between the US and the USSR, underpinned by a vast accumulation of nuclear arsenals, was marked by a delicate balance. Despite episodes like the Cuban Missile Crisis that brought the world precariously close to nuclear brinkmanship, large-scale nuclear conflict was circumvented. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) postulated that any nuclear exchange would culminate in the obliteration of both adversaries, rendering such a conflict inconceivable.[Kang, K. and Kugler, J., 2023. Averting Nuclear War. Springer Nature. p. 44]
Interspersing this narrative, scholars often reference the 'Long Peace' hypothesis. As articulated by figures like John Lewis Gaddis, the absence of direct military confrontations between nuclear-armed superpowers during the Cold War can be viewed as an implicit validation of deterrence theory.[Gaddis, J.L. ed., 1999. Cold War statesmen confront the bomb: nuclear diplomacy since 1945. Oxford University Press, USA. p. 230]
Expert Opinions and Quotations
The intellectual landscape surrounding deterrence theory is vast and multifarious. Notwithstanding its conceptual appeal, deterrence has been the focal point of rigorous debates and critiques.
Additionally, Quackenbush offers an astute synthesis of this discourse. While acknowledging the critiques, Quackenbush accentuates the enduring relevance of deterrence in a nuclear era. Despite the myriad critiques, he posits that deterrence remains at the heart of political interactions in a world with nuclear weapons. This sentiment resonates with a broader academic consensus that, despite its imperfections, deterrence theory offers an indispensable lens to comprehend nuclear dynamics. Moreover, other scholars like Schelling have expounded upon the 'psychology of deterrence.' The idea is that beyond pure rationality, psychological, moral, and ethical considerations also factor into nuclear decision-making. Such nuances, intertwined with empirical and historical evidence, reinforce the argument for nuclear weapons as instruments of international security.[Quackenbush, S.L., 2011. Deterrence theory: where do we stand?. Review of International Studies, 37(2), pp.741-762. p. 743] [Rosenthal, J.H., 2002. Righteous realists: Political realism, responsible power, and American culture in the nuclear age. LSU Press.]
The Argument Against Nuclear Weapons Promoting International Security
The Risk of Nuclear Proliferation: One of the foremost concerns in international security circles is the proliferation of nuclear weapons. An increase in nuclear-armed nations amplifies the odds of employing these weapons, whether by design or misjudgment. Beyond states, there is the looming menace of non-state entities, like terrorist factions, securing nuclear capabilities. Dimitriu nuances the traditional discourse on warfare, emphasizing the transformative nature of conflict in a world grappling with nuclear proliferation. Drawing parallels to historic arms races, scholars like Michael Howard have postulated that an unbridled nuclear arms race could recalibrate geopolitical power dynamics, potentially destabilizing global peace.[Dimitriu, G., 2020. Clausewitz and the politics of war: A contemporary theory. Journal of Strategic Studies, 43(5), pp.645-685. p. 662]
The Humanitarian and Environmental Consequences
Nuclear detonations unleash cataclysmic aftereffects. Beyond the immediate annihilation, the consequent fallout includes ecological degradation and pervasive health implications. Hiroshima and Nagasaki serve as grim reminders of the human toll, with survivors, termed Hibakusha, grappling with the debilitating effects of radiation. Contemporary researchers have extrapolated these historical instances to project the global repercussions of nuclear warfare. The concept of 'nuclear winter,' popularized by scientists like Carl Sagan, envisions a post-nuclear scenario where sunlight is obscured, resulting in plummeting temperatures and widespread ecological upheaval.[Seitz, R., 2011. Nuclear winter was and is debatable. Nature, 475(7354), pp.37]
Case Studies Against the Argument
The annals of history chronicle several episodes underlining the precarious nature of nuclear arsenals. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 exemplifies the brinkmanship that can edge nations toward nuclear warfare. Simultaneously, less-publicized events, like the 1979 NORAD computer system glitch or the 1983 incident with Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov, underscore the inherent risks of misinterpretations and technical glitches in nuclear command systems.[Gaddis, p. 2...