What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS Essay Sample
Complete an ACH on any one of the following possible topics:
ISIS and the future
This is the subject to examine and for you to determine your own hypothesis statements.
BELOW ARE MY HYPOTHESIS STATEMENTS THAT I WANT YOU TO INCORPORATE:
The United States has been battling terror threats mainly from the al Qaeda and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) groups both at home and abroad. The most memorable attack carried out by the AQ is the 9/11 attack, which affected the country both at the domestic and international levels. This discussion applies the ACH process to assess the possibility of a similar attack from either AQ or HTS terror groups. Therefore, the discussion question will be:
1. What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS?
The following hypotheses will guide ACH process.
H0 (A) – There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H0 (B) – There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS.
H1 – There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets at home.
H2 – There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets abroad.
H3 – There will be no significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets at home
H4 – There will be no significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the U.S. targets abroad.
References
Barth, S., Rutter, M., Hoodjer, S., & Quinn, N. (2017, May 12). Exploring the Impact of Executive Orders Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Retrieved from https://www(dot)start(dot)umd(dot)edu/blog/exploring-impact-executive-orders-using-analysis-competing-hypotheses
1. You will be responsible for: Hypothesis Generation
2.Evidence
3. Creation of your matrix
4. Elimination of non-diagnostic material
5. Quantifying your results
6. Gauging factors that could have influenced change
7. Present each hypothesis relative to the others
8. Identify potential evidence that might alter your conclusions. (revise conclusion necessary?)
PLEASE SEE ATTACHED EXAMPLE OF HOW IT SHOULD LOOK.
ACH: The Risk of Another 9/11 Type OF Attack by AQ and HTS
Students Name:
Institutional Affiliation:
Instructors Name:
Course:
Due Date of Submission:
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis Question: What is the risk of another 9/11 type attack from AQ or HTS?
After the devastating 9/11 attack against the US, it has been on the lookout to find out any possibility of a similar attack. These terrorist threats are mainly from groups like Al- Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This analysis is therefore done to evaluate theoretical grounds of argument. It utilizes the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses method of research, and the different hypotheses made include the ones listed below.
HO (A)- There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
HO (B)- There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H1- There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H2-There will be a substantial increase in the dangers of stories by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on US targets abroad
H3- There will be no significant increase in risks of actions by AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H4- There will be no significant increase in the chances of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets abroad.
Analysis Matrix:
HYPOTHESES
EVIDENCE
H0 (A): There will be no significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H0(B): There will be a significant risk of another 9/11 attack from AQ or HTS
H1: There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US Targets at home
H2: There will be a significant increase in the risk of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on US targets abroad
H3: There will be no significant increase in risks of plots by AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets at home
H4- There will be no significant increase in risks of plots by the AQ or HTS to launch terror attacks on the US targets abroad.
E1:the majority of the AQ attacks now concentrate on soft targets like hotels frequented by US citizens abroad. (Clayton, 2018)
-
++
+
++
-
-
E2: Executive branch of government is reevaluating and strengthening counterterrorism policies and Acts. (Szubin, 2015).
+
-
-
-
+
+
E3:the presence of successful terrorist activities in the US jurisdiction abroad. (CRS, 2018)
-
++
0
+
-
-
E4:AQ has been able to maintain its members and recruit more members and support. (Clayton, 2018)
-
+
+
+
_
-
E5: Ability to conduct Aviation Threats. (Coats, 2017)
+
+
+
+
-
-
Undermining evidence
3
1
1
1
4
4
Supportive evidence
2
4
3
4
1
1
Neutral
0
0
1
0
0
0
N/A
0
0
0
0
0
Key to the Matrix
* Strongly Undermines
+ Supports
++ Strongly Supports
1 Neutral
N/A Not Applicable
Introduction
This ACH was designed to evaluate and answer the question: what is the risk of another 9/11 terror attack from AQ or HTS. A brief introduction to the subject at hand shows that the US has been under persistent threat from Islamic terrorist groups. Al Qaeda has been a group on the radar of US Intelligence. This has majorly been due to their acceptance of having or castrated the 9/11 terrorist attack that caused the twin towers' fall killing approximately 3000 people. Therefore, United States has begun a coalition to contrast this movement to reduce the risk of attack. While doing the analysis, we come across the task of evaluating evidence and find factual data. Most of the evidence was gathered from different sources. We ventured into report analysis, professional opinion, book references, and news media posts in our quest to treasure trove the valuable evidence. Besides, to ensure the sources were legit, we embarked on a fact-finding and comparison exercise which revealed that the hypotheses: H0(B) and H2 were the most probable and most likely line of thought.
Hypotheses
Our analysis began with six strong hypotheses, all relevant and possible answers to the question as to whether the risk of a similar 9/11 attack was a prevalent high risk or not. Our initial course of action was to bring to attention the events of the 9/11 attack, which was the large-scale bombing attack against the US. The attack resulted in the perishing of a considerable number of Americans. Following the surprise attack, the US and the world, in general, were left in a vulnerable position thirsting for justice. Events that followed after that was a fierce war against terrorism which ensured policy making and implementation. The 9/11 attack was linked to the terrorist group of Al Qaeda as per newspaper evidence and the group's acceptance of the attack.
In contrast to terrorism, the operation is an alternative much extra similar to the earlier century's cold war. Like the fight compared to Soviet communism, modern campaign besides terrorism is expected to be disgusting, cruel, and long. Since the different natural surroundings of the risk, the United States make sure no perfect idea of when or how the war will finish. The whole achievement in the military processes in Afghanistan cannot essentially be thought of as the win. Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda system of guerrillas spreads well past Afghanistan. It might effortlessly put back together, though, if the United States arrests or murders bin Laden and his substitutes. Future attack influences even include cultured germ conflict or radiological weapons, if not atomic arms.
During the beginning of the cold war, the United States' reply has commenced with the difficult task of collecting a global partnership. Head of state Harry Truman's rousing call to funding free individuals who are battling attempted conquest by equipped subgroups or by external weights" set the sequence of United States past for the succeeding four eras. Head of state Bush's invite to every single nation to link the United States in "development's combat" was formulated as expansively-and projected to be as lasting. In the original war in contradiction of violence, the United States also airs ideologically inspired enemies who do not contract from demise. America's combat will end merely the minute; as Defense Personal assistant Donald Rumsfeld supposed, Americans might once more go on with their daily lives lacking panic or believed of a likely bomber attack.
Venturing further into this analysis, it was relevant to describe the AQ and HTS briefly. The AQ group has its origins deeply rooted in Afghanistan under Osama Bin Laden's leadership, and from the beginning, it was against the Soviet Union. Most of its attacks have been aimed a...