Potential Impact of China-Taiwan Conflict on the US Military

Research Proposal
Student’s Name
Research Electives 1
Date
Instructor’s Name
Air Command and Staff College
eSchool of Graduate PME
Maxwell AFB, Alabama
Working Title:
In the Name of Partnerships: Understanding the Potential Impact of China-Taiwan Conflict on the US Military
Research Question:
What impact will the recent China-Taiwan tension have on the US military?
Problem Background and Significance:
Conflict between two countries has never existed in a vacuum. Other countries get involved in the conflict because of existing partnerships or common interests. The recent China-Taiwan conflict stems from China’s desire to reunify with Taiwan and Taiwan’s desire to be independent of China. It has resulted in China’s increased need to establish its authority over Taiwan, despite Taiwan’s resistance. This conflict will affect not only the two countries but also other countries. The US, for instance, is an ally of Taiwan, and according to the US Department of State, Taiwan is a key US partner in the Indo-Pacific area. The US supports Taiwan's efforts to maintain sufficient defense capability and emphasizes the importance of peaceful conflict resolution. Also, Taiwan is a vibrant democracy whose success is vital to the US. Taiwan has received support from different US administrations. Recently, President Joe Biden said that the US would continue to protect and support its allies in Asia Pacific, including Taiwan. As such, the US cannot stand by the sideline if the tension between China and Taiwan escalates. It has a responsibility to protect its ally, more so because Taiwan holds a strategic position that is important to the US.[Ayu Agnia and Joko Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty," International Journal of Social Science and Human Research 5, no. 6 (2022): 2282-2286, doi: 10.47191/ijsshr/v5-i6-37] [US Department of State, US Relations with Taiwan. May 28, 2022. /u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ (accessed May 17, 2023).] [John Bolton and Derik Zitelman, "Why Taiwan Matters: Clarifying American Interests and What’s at Stake for the United States," Small Wars Journal, (2022), https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-taiwan-matters-clarifying-american-interests-and-whats-stake-united-states] [Agnia and Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty."] [Agnia and Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty."]
China and Taiwan’s conflict has increasingly attracted the attention of the US public. According to Pan, most Americans believe this conflict presents the US with a serious problem, especially because of China’s military strength. As such, the conflict has some military implications for the US, and it is important to explore these implications. In addition, any military intervention by the US in Taiwan's defense can increase the public's war support by at least 7% and affect the outcomes of the war in case one takes place.[Hsin-Hsin Pan, "US public opinion on cross-strait relations: the effect of China threat on the China–Taiwan tension," Japanese Journal of Political Science, (2023): 1-18, doi: 10.1017/S1468109923000038] [Charles Wu et al., "Public support for the use of force in non-Western and non-major powers: The case of a China–Taiwan war." International Political Science Review, 2022, doi: 10.1177/01925121221120792]
The China-Taiwan tension stems from China’s desire to absorb Taiwan and Taiwan’s desire to remain independent of China. Without a clear resolution to the current differences between the two countries, there is a likelihood that the conflict will escalate. Since the US is an ally of Taiwan, its involvement is expected. Existing research establishes that the US might be involved in the conflict through military intervention. However, it does not explain how this involvement will affect the US military. This paper aims to fill this gap.[BIBLIOGRAPHY \l 1033 Yu-Jie Chen, "“One China” Contention in China–Taiwan Relations: Law, Politics and Identity," The China Quarterly, (2022): 1025-1044, doi: 10.1017/S0305741022001333]
Literature Review:
The first source for the research paper provides important background information about how the tensions between Taiwan and China came to be. The article highlights China's goal to restore its standing as a great power, with the task of taking over Taiwan considered by its leader as one that should not be passed between generations. While there is no sign that the war over Taiwan is imminent, a conflict between China and the island will likely include direct involvement by the US. The tension escalated when the President of Taiwan made visits to the US, which prompted China to carry out military exercises surrounding the island for three days. It is important to recognize that under the leadership of President Biden, the US has sent not only delegations but also special military training units and weapons in support of the country's president, Ms. Tai. The article also highlights the "One China" policy that the US abides by in relation to China's claims over Taiwan. Also, the article highlights the Taiwan Relations Act, which points out that non-peaceful attempts to determine the country’s political future constitute a threat to the country’s interest.[Chin, Josh. China and Taiwan Relations Explained: What’s Behind the Divide. May 2023. /articles/china-taiwan-relations-tensions-explained-11653322751 (accessed March 20, 2023).]
The rising power of mainland China coupled with the refusal by Ms. Tsai to accept the 1992 Consensus, are key factors that have raised the tensions between the two countries. The author notes that the main cause of the escalating tension is China's rising power, with the country undergoing more significant economic and military development compared to Taiwan. This has led to an imbalance in power distribution as well as a change in deterrence dynamics. The rise of China's military power has boosted the country's resolve to pursue unification, but Ms. Tsai's refusal of the 1992 Consensus stands in the way, further escalating the conflict. There is, thus, a potential for military invasion in the future.[Xiying, Zuo. "Unbalanced deterrence: coercive threat, reassurance and the US-China rivalry in Taiwan strait." The Pacific Review 34, no. 4 (2019): 547-576.]
One key theme that will determine the effect of the China-Taiwan tension on the US military is One China policy that is guided by Taiwan’s Relations Act, 1982 assurances by President Reagan, and communiques between China and the US. The article by Hass also notes that policy decisions by the US towards the situation have been reactive to the actions of China. The article sheds light on the potential path the tension between the two countries and the response the US could take. While former INDOPACOM commander Phil Davidson forecasted an invasion by China in the next decade, National Intelligence Director Avril Haines pointed out publicly how Beijing is still interested in achieving unification as opposed to using military force to invade Taiwan. As per the article, the US needs to ensure there is credible deterrence while at the same time limiting the risk of precipitating attack by China.[Hass, Ryan. An American Perspective on the Role of Taiwan in Us-China Relations. July 2022. /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FP_20220720_role_of_taiwan_hass.pdf (accessed May 2023).]
The prediction by the US military leaders that there could be an invasion of Taiwan shows that the US military could be significantly impacted by the tension. The military forecasts of a potential invasion of Taiwan give it a timeline of between now and 2049 and have triggered concerns about US readiness. The timelines of when China could invade Taiwan have been dependent on China’s capability. According to military leaders in Taiwan, China will reach full capability of invasion between 2023 and 2025. With a US military leader, Gen Mike Minihan having a "gut" feeling that there would be war between China and US in 2025, there is likely to be preparations that could impact the US military.[Davidson, Helen. US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions. February 2, 2023. /world/2023/feb/02/us-general-gut-feeling-war-china-sparks-alarm-predictions (accessed June 21, 2023).]
Should China invade Taiwan, it is expected that the US would defend it, and the extent of support by allies would have a key impact on US military operations. The ability of the US to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack will depend on the support of allies. As noted by Lin, Japan and Australia are two nations that are most likely to support the US military in defending Taiwan. This would mean the US military working in conjunction with militaries from these two countries. However, if allies are not willing to support the efforts by the US to defend the island, the country may have to provide heavy military assistance to counter the invasion. Allies such as the Philippines and Japan may provide military bases due to their proximity to Taiwan. The support or non-support of partners in defending China will impact the strategy used by the US military.[Lin, Bonny. U.S. Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan: Responses to a Chinese Attack on Taiwan and Potential U.S. Taiwan Policy Changes. February 18, 2021. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1123208.pdf (accessed May 2023).]
Hypothesis/Argument:
The recent China-Taiwan tension could contribute to the intensified deployment of the US military to Taiwan and the eventual loss of military assets in the event of a war. The US is an ally of Taiwan and has, over the years, committed to resisting the use of force or any actions that would jeopardize Taiwan's social, economic, or security efforts. To this end, the US continues to provide Taiwan with defense services and articles to ensure Taiwan is protected and has strong defense capability. Also, the conflict may possibly escalate to a war between China and the US, resulting in the attack and loss of US military assets . Every war has casualties, and even if the US were to win the war, it would lose some of its assets in the process.[US Department of State, US Relations with Taiwan.] [Neri, Yasmine. Can Taiwan Cause a War Between China and the. November 20, 2021. /wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Working-Paper-Series-1-Yasmine-Neri.pdf (accessed May 24, 2023).]
China’s control over Taiwan would leave the US military vulnerable to attack, and as such, the US may likely face vulnerabilities if no strategic action is taken. Therefore, now that President Joe Biden has said that the US would continue to support and defend its allies in the Asia Pacific, including Taiwan, the US is positioned to get involved. Further, US citizens support a war if it means the US is defending Taiwan during a military conflict with China. In addition, there is also a history of US military involvement every time China has tried to take action against Taiwan. According to Garcia, China performed a military drill over Taiwan in 1996, and in response, the US sent an aircraft carrier as a show of its resolve to protect Taiwan against any attack. An increased presence in Taiwan was a show of displeasure towards China.[Brendan Green and Caitlin Talmadge, "Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," International Security 47, no. 1 (2022): 7-45, doi: 10.1162/isec_a_00437] [Agnia and Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty."] [Charles Wu et al., "Public support for the use of force in non-Western and non-major powers: The case of a China–Taiwan war." International Political Science Review, 2022, doi: 10.1177/01925121221120792] [Kristina Garcia, Five things to know about the Taiwan-China conflict, August 8, 2022, https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/five-things-know-about-taiwan-china-conflict (accessed May 24, 2023).]
However, some critics argue that the US should not be involved in the China-Taiwan conflict. They cite the strategic ambiguity of the US policy on military intervention in the event of China’s invasion of Taiwan. < acknowledgement> If the US watches the conflict unfold between China and Taiwan, the US military may become vulnerable to attack from China. US involvement through an intensified military presence in Taiwan could possibly demonstrate a continued commitment to defend Taiwan and prevent a direct attack by China through its military supremacy. [BIBLIOGRAPHY \l 1033 John Tirpak, Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say, March 1, 2023, /escalation-china-war-taiwan-strait/ (accessed May 24, 2023).] [Tirpak, Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say.]
Framework and Outline:
This research paper will employ an explanatory case study framework to compare the current China-Taiwan conflict with the Vietnam War, which preceded the conflict between North and South Vietnam and impacted the US military. Specifically, the framework will involve an in-depth analysis of the factors leading up to the Vietnam War and how the conflict between North and South Vietnam and the eventual war affected the US military. Also, a case study framework will allow meaningful characteristics of the current China-Taiwan conflict to be maintained. First, an introduction will be provided. The in...