Weapon Testing Activities of the PRC

Counterintelligence Analysis 2
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Abstract
Weapon testing activities of the PRC led to increased suspicion of China regarding information theft. The United States Congress Commission was formed in 1998 to investigate the People's Republic of China's involvement in the illegal acquisition of classified information from the United States. This information entailed thermonuclear missile weapons, military technology, and also espionage. The outcome of the research and analysis led to the publishing of the Cox report. Furthermore, this report had significant implications for Americans since it disclosed essential information about their nation and developed new policies that ensured protection against their threats.[Alastair Iain, Johnston, W. K. H. Panofsky, Capua Di Marco, and Franklin R. Lewis. "The Cox committee report: an assessment." Carnegie Endowment (1999).]
The Cox report entails findings of the investigation by Congress into the threat posed by the PRC. Moreover, the Cox report entails information on China's espionage and illegal acquisition of the United States' technology. The report is presented in two parts; Volume I and II containing the analysis of classified information on warheads, the neutron bomb, and U.S. re-entry vehicles. The report also explores the possibilities of information leakage to the PRC and the future implementation of this information into their missile and space programs. Moreover, there are several claims of loopholes in the United States' security systems. Accusations point at U.S. aerospace companies and scientists who have facilitated pilferage of information to Chinese intelligence agencies. Several analytical methods have been incorporated in the development of the Cox report. Some of these techniques include contrarian and imaginative thinking, among others. For instance, imaginative thinking was incorporated to help establish new ideas and other outcome options. Whereas, contrarian technique was used to develop out-of-the-box thinking. Moreover, these techniques were utilized in the compilation of information that was used to design the report. This paper focuses on using these techniques to establish the effectiveness of counterintelligence analysis in the Cox report.[L-E, Nelson. "Report of the Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China submitted by Mr. Cox of California, Chairman." New York Review of Books 46 (1999): 6-6, 2.] [Nelson, New York Review, III.]
Contrarian techniques.
The devil's advocacy is used in challenging an assumption regarding an important intelligent question. This technique helps highlight weaknesses in a current analytical judgment or reaffirms one's confidence by presenting an alternative hypothesis that further explains the current information. The devil's advocacy was used in analyzing whether the PRC stole advanced warhead originating in 1995. The method challenges a single held view by building alternative explanations. The technique found evidence contributing to the scenario that the PRC had stolen the U.S. nuclear secrets. The method further challenged the PRC's analytical capabilities by supporting the assumptions that the PRC had stolen nuclear information. The technique revealed flaws within the intelligence community.
Team A/Team B method was used in the report. This method recognizes a different and equally strong mindset held on an issue that needs clarification. It helps the opposing team see the perspective of the other group. The method was used in chapter three, where there are two case studies concerning the PRC efforts to obtain machine tool technology. The analysts presented two different scenarios on how the Chinese tried to access the U.S. sensitive technology. The researchers included in each scenario key potential impacts, facts, and timelines that could have occurred. Further summarizing the most potential outcomes and advancements that can be made for both case studies. This method also helps those holding a different view to feel that their opinions have been given attention.[Tradecraft, A. Primer. "Structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis." U.S. Government (2009), 19.]
The high impact/ low probability analysis was also used in the report. It alerts the researchers on the potential impact of a low probability event on the United States interests. This method was used by researchers in analyzing the potential of using high-performance computers. The analysts knew the high potential impact of developing the technology of new nuclear missiles, therefore, addressing it in the report. Furthermore, they defined the outcome clearly, outlining what could happen to access the new technology and lastly, how computers could be an essential part of the future. The analysis also addressed the issue that there could be several unknowns concerning the new technology's development. Through the high impact/ low probability analysis, the researchers noted that development could be a vital topic that needed to be taken into account when looking at how to address China's issue of obtaining information in the future.
Imaginative thinking techniques
Brainstorming is widely used in maximizing creative thinking and further stimulates new ideas. It involves discussions of change by various groups of analysts and applies to all structured analysis techniques. It is majorly used at the beginning of research to generate a range of hypotheses. All the topics in the Cox report are as a result of hundreds of hours of brainstorming. Examples of topics include methods by which PRC attempts to acquire the United States technology for military purposes. Through brainstorming, the analysts could think radically and s...