'Al Qa'ida's next major domestic attack on the United States' Analysis Essay
ASSIGNMENT: This assignment is a research-analysis paper of approximately 1500 words +/- 10%. It tests the assimilation of key themes on the topic of forecasting terrorism, without overly demanding in-depth forecasting at the level of a trained analyst or utilizing full-scale Khalsa or ASAP methodology.
Apply knowledge from the study of terrorist group motivations/psychology, terrorist-CBRN case studies/precedents (terrorist modus operandus for seeking, producing and delivering CBRN agents), and aspects of specific CBRN agents to the development of collections indicators in a forecasting methodology for a hypothetical threat scenario.
Describe how you would incorporate the use of collections indicators (ideally from the TIIE) in a forecasting methodology applied to the scenario.
• Focus/Thesis: addressing the essay question and articulating a clear hypothesis. No essay can be complete without a thesis statement telling the reader what the key purpose and argument of the paper is. A paper without a clear thesis will automatically be downgraded one letter grade. Tip: use the essay question itself as a starting point when developing your thesis statement.
• Content/Subject Knowledge: demonstrating deep subject knowledge and understanding of the key themes from course readings and additional relevant outside material. As you make an overall "predictive assessment" on the likely terrorist attack scenario, you MUST weave in key course themes from texts and use credible external sources (both cited appropriately in Chicago format) to back up your argument and explain the forecasting methodology you used. No assertion you make can stand without a logical defense of some sort: use evidence from the class and the scholarly body of counterterrorism and WMD theory to support your argument. Failure to demonstrate knowledge of course themes and objectives will automatically result in the essay being downgraded one letter grade. A minimum of seven credible sources on terrorism analysis (course materials and external scholarly sources) must be cited in the essay.
A minimum of five direct references to key course themes and conclusions must also be cited.
A minimum of ten substantive foot/endnotes is necessary to demonstrate your knowledge of key course themes.
• Critical Thinking Skills: strategic approach to problem-solving, well-argued ideas and conclusions that support the thesis/essay question, demonstration of logical and fact-based reasoning, demonstrating well-planned research and usage of sources. Your original analysis is key here. Excessive quotes and the absence of your own original analysis is grounds for a letter grade score reduction.
• Organization of Ideas/Format: demonstration of a logical progression that effectively argues the thesis, clearly organized topic sentences and ideas, articulated assumptions, appropriate introduction, paragraphs, conclusions, and citations.
• Writing Conventions: following the Chicago style guide and accepted rules of grammar and style.
Paper guidance follows:
Title: 'Al Qa'ida's next major domestic attack on the United States'
• Components: The paper concerns the creation/forecast of a partially intuition-based attack scenario, based on scant intelligence, or 'dots' in the form of a theoretical Intelligence intercept (below). You fill in the "gaps" with logical assertions backed up from your research and via your understanding of course materials. A predetermined parameter, in this case, is that before this intercept, another broad intelligence intercept was received indicating a major domestic terrorist attack would occur against the US within three-to-nine months (for your assignment, write it as if today is June 15, 20XX). These two items are the "intelligence available." You must analyze all the provided "raw intelligence" and apply your knowledge to create a basic attack scenario around these two pieces of intelligence on the impending, potential future attack. In your description of how you assess the attack will unfold (25% of the essay), try to address factors such as weapons and attack methods, time frame, target, logistics/travel, expected casualties, etc. The other 75% of the paper should provide a discussion of WHY you think the attack will go along those lines. Use cited references to course materials and research that backs up your assessed attack forecast. Bring in the use of collections indicators and a forecasting methodology as well.
An assertion not backed up with evidence and/or reasoning is just an opinion--and that is insufficient. While the scenario you paint is fictitious, remember that the goal is for you to demonstrate understanding of key themes (cited) and incorporate a few scholarly research works on terrorism and WMD. You should bear in mind when formulating the essay the learning objective and tasks above.
Transcript of Intercept:
Fragmented intelligence from a senior al-Qaida member was intercepted. He is unaware of the interception. No further indicators or intelligence has been forthcoming, except that it is known that there is an impending attack on the US mainland within 3 to 9 months, and that this intercepted intelligence is not disinformation and is considered credible:
(Arabic, reproduced in phonetic Latin alphabet). Dots represent breaks in intercept.
HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA…...AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)……….KHAMESS IQWAN…AFGHAN…………………………....JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA'ASRUKAH……….……...ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE'SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH……….CASABLANCA……… ……………………...ISLAMABAD…….……BARIS………..…GENNEDY…………..…BEIT AMEEN ……BROKLIN………..MEEYET LITTER SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA'AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH….. ZAMAMEER………………DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL HAROOB……….…. LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO……….…LONDONNE……….SLAMABAD ..…..MUMKIN…..MISHKELLEH…SHURTA……….OULA..…….AMIN.………………AMERICIAH………. ISA'AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES SHUHADA'A……
Translation (English)
STRIKE …….. TIMES SQUARE ………. THIRTY-FIRST …… NEW YEAR'S EVE (?) ………… FIVE BROTHERS …….. AFGHAN ………. LEBANESE PASSPORTS STOLEN BLANKS …… CHRISTIAN NAMES ……….. VISAS … AMERICAN CONSULATE CASABLANCA……. .….. ISLAMABAD ….. PARIS ……. KENNEDY …… SAFE HOUSE ….… BROOKLYN …... 100 LITRES SARIN………… MOVING AMBULANCE ………. CROWD …… MIDNIGHT ……….. HORNS …….. FLASHING LIGHTS …… HEART ATTACK CASE …… ESCAPE ROUTE ……… LA GUARDIA ........… TORONTO ………. LONDON ….. ISLAMABAD …… MAYBE ……. PROBLEM… AMERICAN POLICE OR SECURITY …… AMBULANCE … BOMB ……. FIVE MARTYRS……
Note: do NOT place this raw intelligence intercept in the body of your essay. Assume the reader (me) is familiar with the raw intelligence above as you craft the essay. Do not, however, assume the reader is familiar with the key course themes and/or Khalsa/ASAP methodologies.
Do not use Wikipedia or other unreliable websites that are clearly not reviewed for content or accuracy.
arch.
• Analysis is critical: While your scenario can be innovative and original, ALL your assessments/judgments should be backed up with relevant cited evidence and clear logic—you MUST demonstrate your methodology and link it back to themes and/or objectives in a coherent way.
The two pieces of "intelligence" above are your starting point: fill in the gaps of your threat scenario with plausible assertions argued and supported (cited) with external research, course materials and logical explanation. You MUST explain WHY you assess the scenario will occur, Example: if you assert al Qaida will use a certain tactic, you must show a linkage to research that backs this up and/or you explain why you assess al Qaida would use a different method.
Remember the golden rule: "answer the essay question (or address the task) specifically and directly."
ASSIGNMENT: FORECASTING TERRORISM 2
Title: 'Al Qa'ida's next major domestic attack on the United States'
[Student Names]
[Course ID]
[Instructor]
[Institutional Affiliation]
Date of Submission
'Al Qa'ida's next major domestic attack on the United States'
1.0 Introduction
The research paper discusses strategies for forecasting terrorism. Given the scope of the research, in-depth forecasting techniques such as the full-scale Khalsa or ASAP methodology. The research takes an analytical approach, and reviews a terrorist attack scenario from a homeland security intelligence standpoint. The research draws from an intercepted communiqué from al-Qaida terrorist organization leader commanding the terror group to launch attacks on specific US and global targets. The essay analyses the fragmented piece of intelligence intercepted from a senior Al-Qaeda commander. Theoretical terrorism discourse and national security intelligence or indicators will be incorporated in the analysis of the terror communiqué. The researcher presumes that the al-Qaida commander is unaware of the intercept, and will thus proceed with the attack plans. While forecasting terrorist attacks is shrouded with uncertainties, the intercepted Al-qaida commander communiqué can inform counter-terrorism efforts aimed at stopping their next major attack on the United States.
Terrorism Forecasting
Terrorism is not a static discipline, but rather a dynamic, complex and ever evolving phenomenon. Forecasting of future terrorist attacks prior to their happening became commonplace in the aftermath of September 11 terror attacks. Projecting terrorism attacks with near certainty is not an easy endeavor especially given the dynamic nature of their modus operandi. The fact that terrorism attacks of the scale of 9/11 could happen without prior predictions is testimony to the complexity of predicting possible future terrorist attacks. Partly, the problem can be attributed to methodological and conceptual gaps in security literature with regards to the modus operandi of Islamic terrorism. The emergence of al-Qaida as a global terrorism network caught security and intelligence experts flatfooted. According to the 9/11 commission report, were shocked by the 9/11 attack. The attack may have been unforeseeable given a series of security lapses and operational failures that could have been easily exploited by members of Islamic terrorism groups. Perhaps, the attack was permissible due to lack of terrorism predictive systems that could have probed system failures given the lack of foresight and hindsight. Thus there is need for a more focused, well-coordinated and systematic counter terrorism efforts based on predictive systems.
Terrorism, CBRN & WMD
Terrorism is an ever changing phenomenon that cannot be predicted with near certainty. Given the evolving nature, there is high probability of the phenomenon changing in the near and long term future. Nevertheless, most security expert shave concurred that global terrorism is likely to either get more complex or statistically remain at the same level. On the basis of threat prediction, a wider literature supports a high possibility that Islamic terrorism groups, their affiliates or sympathizers are more likely to launch attacks on U.s using Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The changing nature of global terrorism has made it impossible for security experts to forecast terrorist attacks. Reason being that it’s no longer the Islamic movements like Jihadists, Al-Qaida and ISIS that pose a national security threat but home-grown jihadists as well. There seems to be concurrence among security experts that Jihadism and other Islamic radicalization movements pose a significant security threat to homeland security. Prediction of terrorism attacks has further been complicated by the mushrooming of Jihadist organizations and paramilitary groups with a modus operandi that is synonymous with Al-Qaida. While it might be possible to predict terrorism attacks, experts agree that homegrown attacks can be complex and impossible to predict since they are orchestrated by domestic homegrown groups that have been classified as highly potential future threats.
Changing modus operandi
The changing modus operandi of terrorist groups is increasingly complicating the security experts’ efforts to predict terror attacks. However, predictions indicate a high likelihood that terrorists may deploy CBRN and WMD in the foreseeable future. According to the U.S counter-terrorism homeland security report, predictions are that terrorists are more likely to use weapons of mass destruction or CBRN weapons in future attacks. Security predictions also surmise that they are more likely to launch simultaneous attacks, use cyber-terrorism and suicide bombing. Forecasting terrorism is not a new phenomenon. Since the 9/11 attack, there have been predictions that future attacks could be launched by decentralized terrorist groups. Subsequently, the decentralization could lead to creation of dispersed terror groups, cells and lone wolf-attackers. This maxim is supported by two homeland security reports suggesting that decentralization of terror attacks would proliferate lone wolf terror attacks on domestic targets. The security intelligence report mentions oil, energy and key government installations as potential future targets. The report further predicts the high ...
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