Final paper with progress paper

The Impact of Terrorist Threats on the Travel and Tourism Industry Name School Course Professor Date Introduction, Research Question, and Hypothesis Introduction Terrorism has emerged as a significant and recurring subject in public discussions in recent decades, primarily due to the heightened occurrence of terrorist acts. The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (2023) defines terrorism as the use of violence or criminal activities by individuals or groups to advance ideological objectives. These objectives can be influenced by declared foreign terrorist organizations or nations and domestic factors such as political, religious, social, racial, or environmental causes. The incidence of terrorist strikes has been on the rise in recent years, posing a constant concern for both developed and developing nations (Alade et al., 2021). In recent decades, numerous developed and politically stable nations have experienced a significant increase in terrorist incidents, especially in the past decade. Tourism is an important sector that generates revenue, economic growth, and income for numerous countries worldwide. However, the worldwide travel and tourism service sector has experienced ongoing and occasional security challenges for the past twenty years. Tourism is a multifaceted industry involving numerous organizations, corporations, and governmental and non-governmental sectors operating at various levels to provide a comprehensive experience for tourists (Kumala et al., 2023). The global travel business is compelled to confront the solemn reality of terrorism. Terrorist acts in Europe in recent years, along with the extensive media coverage they have garnered, have subsequently impacted the conduct of tourists. Numerous countries' economic progress worldwide significantly depends on the tourist sector. In recent years, the worldwide community has been greatly concerned about the rise in terrorist threats and assaults. Several unforeseen incidents have transpired in select upscale tourist destinations and airports. These attacks consistently seek to instill fear in individuals and compel them to renounce specific beliefs and mythologies. The World Travel and Tourism Council (2022) predicts that the travel and tourism industry will generate around 126 million additional employment opportunities over the next ten years. More than fifty percent of employed individuals in small and developing countries engage in activities directly or indirectly linked to tourism. Tourism generates more employment opportunities in developing nations than other economic sectors (Zhao et al., 2023). The tourism industry's financial contributions to the country's economy are evident. This data unequivocally demonstrates that tourism is a crucial component of the economy, attracting millions of visitors from across the globe to diverse tourist locations each year. Individuals are influenced by various factors while choosing travel destinations, and security is one such element. The tourism and travel business is highly susceptible to terrorist strikes. Terrorist attacks have a significant detrimental impact on the tourism industry, resulting in extensive physical damage and loss of life. According to Glied (2024), around 3500 tourists departed from Tunisia due to apprehensions of other assaults occurring in various locations. The assaults in Belgium and France have generated possible risks for other European countries to be subjected to surveillance (Gill, 2019). Furthermore, the 9/11 incident resulted in a substantial decline in air travel due to widespread dread of flying and concerns about safety. A significant number of individuals have either canceled or rescheduled their trip arrangements. In recent years, terrorists and suicide bombers have been focusing their attacks on densely populated areas and specific venues that provide them with a global platform. Several countries, including Pakistan, Turkey, Kenya, Paris, Burkina Faso, and Brussels, have seen devastating acts of terrorism in commercial areas. These attacks have had detrimental impacts on their economies. The immediate consequences of terrorist attacks on tourism are well documented. However, there is less certainty on the intricate and enduring effects, such as the recovery of destinations and the initiatives that can alleviate these effects. Research Question How do terrorist threats and attacks impact tourist behavior, destination image, and the economic development of the travel and tourism industry? What strategies can mitigate these effects to ensure the recovery and resilience of affected destinations? Hypothesis H1: Terrorist acts greatly discourage tourists from traveling to the impacted areas, which immediately lowers visitor arrivals and thus lowers tourism-related income. H2: The damaging effects of terrorist threats on the destination's reputation can be lessened, hastening the recovery of visitor arrivals and economic performance through efficient crisis management and marketing techniques. Review of the Literature The Relationship Between Terrorism and Tourism Many studies have been conducted on the short- and long-term impacts of terrorism on traveler behavior and the tourism sector (Seabra et al., 2020; Akamavi et al., 2022; Pencarelli, 2019; Kubickova et al., 2019). There has been research on the local economy, perceived safety, and destination image about destination resilience in the wake of terrorist attacks. Pencarelli (2019) asserts that connections with other sectors of the economy, such as travel and transportation, lodging, aviation, food and beverage services, and entertainment, are advantageous for the customer-focused tourism industry. It is acknowledged that the surge in tourist attacks in recent years is a persistent problem that impacts peace, security, and the economy (Seabra et al., 2020). Countries that have experienced terrorist attacks must confront the challenges that arise in several economic sectors, with the tourism industry being one of the most severely affected. Another study was conducted to examine the causal effect of terrorist attacks on the tourism sector in Turkey using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Köse and Oymak (2019) discovered that a country targeted by terrorism incurs economic consequences within its boundaries and foreign activities. Terrorist attacks lead to a decrease in the financial gains from tourism. Multiple studies have assessed the effect of the 9/11 incident on the influx of travelers and tourism to the United States. Ito and Lee (2019) evaluated the immediate impact of the 9/11 attacks on market demand for flights to the USA using a time series intervention model. Their findings revealed a substantial and noteworthy decline in total demand. According to their investigation, since 9/11, several local and international airlines have faced an unprecedented financial crisis in aviation history. After a thorough analysis, Kubickova et al. (2019) found that 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis affected the worldwide hotel business. Researchers examined monthly Smith Travel Research (STR) hotel data for Honduras and Costa Rica to investigate whether there were any discrepancies and how they affected the hotel industry. Their findings showed that Costa Rica suffered more than Honduras from the two crises. The 2008 crisis was much worse than 9/11, highlighting the differences. Destinations' crisis responses may depend on tourists' origin, mode of transportation, hotel category, tourism growth, and institutional context. Studies have also estimated the costs of reducing plane travel after 9/11. After 9/11, auto-driving fatalities increased due to a move away from aviation travel, according to Gaibulloev and Sandler (2019). Tourism is associated with tranquility. This is the perfect place for vacationers seeking relaxation, adventure, and discovery. Bakota et al. (2022) found that terrorists target tourism because they can upset societal norms, religious beliefs, and cultural traditions. They also suggest that tourism by outsiders may be neocolonial. Bakota et al. (2022) conducted their research on Egypt's terrorist attacks in 1997, 2011, and 2015. In 1971, a group of armed individuals fatally shot 71 tourists in an incident that occurred outside of Luxor. The author elaborated that the terrorist attack in Egypt targeting tourists was deliberate, driven by a desire to restore traditional Islamic social norms and regulations that oppose modernity and corruption, which were perceived as deviating from traditional Islamic principles. The assertion is substantiated by the research conducted by Higgins-Desbiolles et al. (2019). The study asserted that the tourism industry is accountable for eroding indigenous customs. These authors subscribe to the notion that tourists are responsible for instigating violence and that it does not bring any advantages to the local population. The correlation between tourism and terrorism demonstrates that tourism serves as a conduit for communication instigated by terrorists, in addition to the messages conveyed by them. The Effect of the Terrorist Attack on the Economy. Terrorism has been a significant global issue throughout history. Saul and Heath (2021) characterize the extent of terrorism as the deliberate use of violence, extortion, or intimidation against individuals or groups for unjustifiable and unfair advantages or benefits. Furthermore, he contended that terrorism is primarily a result of the direct influence of political objectives. Terrorist acts, whether they occur within a country or across borders, have a significant impact on both the domestic and global economy. This impact can be categorized as short-term consequences, medium-term repercussions, and long-term effects on productivity. Regarding immediate consequences, a terrorist strike might result in the devastation of human lives and many forms of property, including infrastructure, plants, machinery, factories, and human lives. It allocates expenses to the economy to recuperate from the devastation caused by terrorism. (Obani, 2019). The magnitude of the incident directly influences the economic impact of a terrorist strike. Terrorism has a profound and wide-ranging influence on society and communities at a worldwide level. Bader et al. (2019) discovered that terrorism is considered one of the primary security dangers to countries, and it may be the most severe threat currently. Terrorism has a profound and destructive effect on global business and trade. They also contended that terrorism, to a large extent, aims to disrupt and destroy business opportunities, which in turn hampers global economic growth and development. Bader et al. observed that various forms of terrorism provide distinct hazards to firms and are exceedingly challenging to anticipate and control. The tourist industry plays a prominent role in driving economic growth in the global economy. According to the most recent annual analysis by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the travel and tourism industry made up 9.1% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023, a 23.2% rise compared to 2022. Tourist terrorism directly impacts the tourism industry and the global economy by reducing the number of travelers, damaging renowned tourist attractions, and disrupting tourist activities. Effect of Terrorism on Destination Image Studies are scarce about the influence of terrorism on the perception of a travel destination. Nevertheless, Han (2019) examined the many manifestations of tranquility by utilizing the motivational framework as a perspective. He discovered that tourists typically prefer areas with a serene and calm atmosphere for their vacation experience. Tourism in the afflicted region is significantly reduced by terrorism and other violence. Chemli et al. (2024) used multiple linear regression analysis to explore how terrorism affects tourism employment and arrivals. Their research found that terrorist attacks in tourist locations may include bombings, mass killings, and more advanced strikes using technology and the internet. The perception of a tourist site plays a pivotal role in enticing visitors. Terrorist threats have the potential to harm the reputation of a location significantly. Kusumawati (2021) examin...