Implications of Kahneman’s Arguments in Surety of Fools

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Implications of Kahneman’s Arguments in “Surety of Fools”
Daniel Kahneman presents a logical argument on how human beings create their reality from what they see or hear. We interact with people who validate our opinions and views. In the opinion of Kahneman (214), we are aware of the facts, but we often present biased information. Kahneman described the illusion of validity as the propensity to overrate our ability to come up with correct predictions. In other words, we create our own ‘reality’ instead of basing our arguments on the reality. Kahneman best describes this situation by using the experience of the soldiers in his essay, ‘Surety of Fools.”
Kahneman’s argument on the meaning of illusion of validity posits that illusion of validity is a cognitive bias whereby one overestimates their ability to predict and interpret accurately the results when doing some data prediction. It becomes useless and fallible when the person knows the facts but tends to ignore them to match their predictions. He illustrates this using the soldiers in the “surety of fools” and exemplifies illusion of validity by showing the procedures of assessment in the Israel soldiers. Expert psychologists who evaluated and classified the employees were almost entirely ineffective because they made their decisions on categorization and support the conclusion with all evidence. Their effectiveness only upgraded when they assessed several personality qualities by using a simple model. Thus, to get rid of the illusion of validity, understand our complexity and become aware of our biases, we must accept the reality and always give each situation an expert thought, with little or no regard to our imaginations as discussed in these arguments.
Cognitive bias is a logical order which affects the way we think (Thaler & Richard, 25). Several reasons may change the way we remember, which in turn may change our decision making and lead us to make biased decisions (Kahneman, 4). Also, Kahneman says that each time new soldiers were recruited, their ability to lift heavy logs would give them feedback about their competence. Unfortunately, some conclusions they made ended up putting them into wrong judgments or poor decisions. Kahneman (216) says that the truth regarding how quality their predictions were was not related whatsoever on the evaluation of new soldiers and that they were not confident enough in their predictions and judgments. As a result, they often made wrong decisions because of the biases in thinking.
Kahneman describes the illusion of validity as a cognitive bias whereby one overestimates their ability to predict and interpret the results accurately when doing some data prediction. It becomes useless and fallible when the person knows the facts but tends to ignore them to match their predictions. Kahneman best describes this in his essay, “Surety of Fools” whereby they select soldiers, and thei...