Are intelligence failures more likely to occur as a result of problems with the collection, analysis, or management of intelligence
This is an analytical essay please read the instructions thoroughly.
You need to answer the following question: .
Are intelligence failures more likely to occur as a result of problems with the collection, analysis, or management of intelligence, and why? Discuss with reference to at least three case studies.
The answer should present 3 case studies on how intelligence failures occur, for each case study talk about intelligence gathering (collecting data) and then analyse how the failure occurred each case study should be presented separately, each case must present a comprehensive argument supported by evidence.
I will include sources assigned to each case study please DO NOT USE ANY OTHER SOURCES
FIRST Case study 1 - Pearl Harbour
KEEP IN MIND THAT
1 -This was a failure due to poor analysis of the available intelligence.
2- This means that the information of an impending attack was lost in the mass of other information that intelligence officers, military commanders, and policymakers were receiving.
3-Also, Washington received wildly misleading political assessments of Japanese intentions to Washington provided by the us embassy in Tokyo.
2nd case study: assessing the soviet threat
1-Kuhns(soviet source 3) suggests that the CIA’s early efforts at assessing the Soviet threat were Hampered by a lack of both signals and human intelligence collection
2- American intelligence underestimated Soviet military threat after 1948
3-american intelligence failed in distinguishing between soviet capabilities and intentions in assessing the soviet threat
3rd case study The Surprise of October 1973 also known as the Yom kippur war
1-isreal failure in assessing Arab capabilities.
2-isreal thought that their political relations with the us and uk would halt any hostile intentions from Egypt and syria , furthermore Israeli belief that the Soviet Union would restrain Egypt and Syria from attacking.
3-the intelligence failure lies principally with the leadership of AMAN (Israeli military intelligence), which preferred to make definitive judgments rather than accept ambiguous situations.
4-israeli Intelligence agencies had quite a sophisticated understanding of Egyptian intent, but failed to correctly assess improved Egyptian capabilities.
Write 1900 – 2000 words . and please don't add any other countries for examples.
ANALYTICAL ESSAY
YOUR NAME
NAME OF CLASS
PROFESSOR’S NAME
SCHOOL’S NAME
CITY AND STATE
DATE
Intelligence failure is inevitable, especially during world wars. This term generally refers to a misinterpretation of a given situation which resulted in counterproductive and inappropriate actions done by the military forces as ordered by the government. Almost all human plans and actions are prone to errors as no one is perfect to conduct them smoothly. Such human endeavors include intelligence in which its failures were depicted during different times of world wars. Many efforts were done to predict and read the next moves and attacks of the enemies during such times. However, it is expected that these efforts will somehow fail at some point (Rezk, 2017). Enemies were either overly estimated or underestimated that led to situations to go unforeseen, despite its predictions. As a team effort, there are various explanations about why intelligence work fails. One prominent factor contributing to intelligence failure is the result of poor collection and analysis of such information. This statement will be supported throughout the paper through the discussions of three notable events depicting intelligence failures such as the attack in Pearl Harbour, the Societ Threat, and the Surprise of October 1973.
Analysis of historical events that resulted in intelligence failure is crucial. However, it is also as important to reflect on the issue of the intelligence failure in general. In various historical events, commonalities have been observed which attributes to tendencies of intelligence failing. These failures are commonly caused by underestimation, overestimation, over-confidence, inadequate communication, intelligence subordination to existing policies, inaccessible information, assertions and opinions, complacency, mirror-imaging, and failing to connect the dots (Dahl, 2013). Among these general causes, overestimating the enemy is the most common reason why intelligence work fails. Another reason is underestimation which typically occurs when warnings are not taken seriously or intentions of the enemies are being misinterpreted. This is often a result of not trusting and listening to foreign intelligence services as well as the lower-ranking officials (Kipnis, 2013). Over-confidence is depicted when one party is confident enough regarding its capabilities and not taking into consideration other factors that might lead to unforeseen situations. The lack of communication is often illustrated in scenario wherein various agencies delegate different officials along with different rules. Communication is not centralized which often leads to failure of the structure in the organization. Intelligence subordination to policy refers to an event where actions are taken according to the desires of the superiors despite the judgments made according to the result of the intelligence (Kahn, 1991). Another reason is the inaccessibility of information. Sensitive information is often restricted as a result of jealousy in some bureaucracies. Complacency contributes to failure when no actions are done despite having crucial information due to the belief that the enemy will not take any actions yet. Mirror-imaging connotes to attributing the situation at hand to similar situations before and applying similar techniques and strategies. Failing to connect dots happen when bits of information gathered by the intelligence are not put together effectively, failing to arrive at a coherent conclusion.
INTELLIGENCE FAILURE DURING PEARL HARBOUR ATTACK
Failure of intelligence work as a result of the poor analysis is perfectly depicted in the attack of Japan on Pearl Harbour. What happened in Pearl Harbour is regarded as the greatest failure of intelligence in the United States. Everyone talked about the attack that the Japanese might do but didn’t expect they would attack the United States as it would make no sense to attack a superior nation. Americans had underestimated the Japanese and were overly confident knowing Japanese capabilities and will. The preconceptions of the Japanese as well as the racism caused Americans to be complacent about the possibility of the Japanese attack on any US territories. At that time, the United States has several cryptanalysts intercepting and breaking Japanese codes. Major diplomatic messages of Japan were created through a machine which the Americans named PURPLE. When the cryptanalyst was able to decipher the patterns of the codes, most of the intercepted messages revolved around the diplomatic relations of the Japanese. The intelligence officers of both the army and navy select the messages that are of the highest importance and send it to the president as well as secretaries of the state, the chief of staff, and other top-level officials. The intercepted messages provided Americans the awareness and insights into the Japanese foreign activities and thoughts. The downside of these intercepts is that it did not provide any information regarding the military and naval plans of the Japanese. The army wasn’t able to decipher any Japanese army codes since not enough messages were intercepted. In addition to this, other sources also failed to provide any information and specifics regarding the planning of Japanese naval and military. Though reports concerning organization, tactics, and weapons were presented, no solid information was provided about the Japanese’ intentions of their armed forces. The diplomatic messages intercepted mainly focuses on political situations and not on any military developments (Dahl, 2013).
Traffic analysis is the only form of intelligence of the US that provided strong information concerning Japanese naval matters. Based on years of observations, traffic analysts concluded that when there is an absence of communications picked up by the monitors, its aircraft carriers are regarded as on standby in their home waters as a cover in case an attack will take place on the main islands of Japan. This has been confirmed during the scare attack of February and in July. This mirror-imaging led the Americans to be certain that Japanese carriers are in their home waters since no communications were heard when in fact six of these carriers were making its way to the seas north of Hawaii. These fleets launched the airplanes that had attack Pearl Harbour on Sunday morning (Kahn, 1991).
American intelligence failed exten...