Significant Shifts on China's Population Trends

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Over the course of human history, a wide range of factors has impacted population growth. Fertility, the number of children women have during their reproductive years, is one of the most important factors. Mortality, or a population's death rate, is another crucial factor. Reduced mortality rates and increased population growth can result from improvements in healthcare, nutrition, and living conditions. Natural disasters, war, and other forms of violence can significantly influence population changes. Migration, in the form of sustained human movement from one area to another equally contributes to population trends. Broadly, these factors and their effect on the population are founded on various theories, including the demographic transition theory, Malthusian theory, and the modernization theories, which attempt to explain population transitions. Indeed, a review of population trends across China's three generational cohorts captures the influence of these theories on population transitions.
First, the boomer generation, born between 1945 and 1964 experienced vast population growth due to influences such as the scientific revolution and industrial development. The traditionalists occupied a period in which China was still largely rural and agricultural. Boomers underwent radical changes, such as the Chinese Civil War and the Cultural Revolution. Despite manifesting these changes later than countries in Europe, China experienced accelerated population growth starting from the 1860s due mainly to the declines in the mortality rate accompanying the scientific revolution that accompanied the industrial revolution. Like most other countries, fewer Chinese people have died than have been born each year.[Yuhua Wang, "The Political Legacy of Violence During China's Cultural Revolution," British Journal of Political Science 51, no. 2 (2019): 464, doi:10.1017/s0007123419000255.]
Despite experiencing robust population growth, the traditionalist generation did not enjoy the wealth that defined industrial growth in other countries. Typically, the effects of economic development and a rise in people's standard of living were the primary drivers of industrialization, as measured by initial mortality reductions. People started to eat better, live in better homes, take more baths, and drink cleaner water. As a result of these advancements in the human condition, both disease exposure and disease resistance were reduced. Improvements in public health and medical technology, including sanitation and especially vaccination against infectious diseases, led to a decline in mortality after the 1800s. However, China in the late 1800s and in the early 1900s China existed as a relatively underdeveloped country. China's poverty was widespread and deeply ingrained in society in the late 1800s and early 1900s. The nation was plagued by war, natural disasters, economic mismanagement, and an ineffective government.
Despite poverty-related challenges, China experienced substantial economic development from industrial development, such as scientific development. For example, it is estimated that China had a low life expectancy estimated at 40 years after the period following the end of World War 2. However, public health interventions such as implementing a simple healthcare system improved life expectancy to over 60 years by the mid-1970s. Simultaneously, increasing incomes in China have positively impacted life expectancy, pushing it to 77 for females. In light of such population changes, there is little doubt that industrialization had an intricate relationship with population growth. Arguably, the population shifts that the traditionalist generation experienced are comparable to trends that defined population growth in Europe in the 1800s. The population shifts in Europe occurred due to the emergence of industrial farming methods improving nutrition and the disappearance of devastating illnesses such as the plague.[Kimberly Singer Babiarz et al., "An Exploration of China's Mortality Decline Under Mao: A Provincial Analysis, 1950080," SSRN Electronic Journal 69, no. 1 (2015):, doi:10.2139/ssrn.2850698.] [ChinaPower Project, "Developing or Developed? Assessing Chinese Life Expectancy," ChinaPower Project, last modified August 26, 2020, https://chinapower.csis.org/life-expectancy/.]
After the boomers, the generation born between 1945 and 1979, also known as generation X, lived in a time defined by rapid population growth stimulated by an equally rapid economic growth rate. The trends witnessed in China's generation X are an embodiment of the implications of concepts such as Marxism and John Stuart Mill's thesis on population growth. On the one hand, population growth, according to the Marxist critique o Malthus's theory, is the result of capitalist development. The Marxist critique contends that capitalism's social and economic conditions are to blame for population growth, which is not natural. Conversely, John Stuart Mill also argued that a person's quality of life significantly affects how many children they have. He believed that as individuals rise above the animal condition, they are more likely to be held back by the fear of want. This school of thought suggests that people are similarly affected by the fear of losing existing privileges. People who believe their standard of living is inadequate are more likely to produce fewer children. These contrasting positions are uniquely represented in population patterns in China's generation X.
For example, the introduction of the planned economy in the 1950s resulted in rapid economic expansion and modernization. Notably, these rapid economic developments emphasized heavy industry and the collectivization of agriculture. Numerous rural residents relocated to urban areas for employment and educational opportunities as large-scale industrial and agricultural projects were constructed. Subsequently, the Chinese population during this period shot significantly. Indeed, Mao Zedong encouraged the Chinese to increase their childbearing rate in 1949 to preserve their culture and customs. The social and economic conditions and high demand for manual labor drove this unofficial policy. Moreover, the increase in population numbers that defined China's generation Y could be linked to social trends that characterized the period. For example, many Chinese citizens saw significant increases in their social mobility due to the People's Republic of China's founding in 1949 and the implementation of policies to enhance the lives of the working class and peasants. Education and healthcare expanded during this time, and several welfare programs were implemented. Notably, such programs supported public perceptions of future well-being. In line with Stuart Mill's thesis, such perceptions of future well-being could have allowed or increased fertility.[Clarke Aileen, "See How the One-Child Policy Changed China," National Geographic, last modified November 13, 2015, /history/article/151113-datapoints-china-one-child-policy#:~:text=Shortly%20after%20the%20establishment%20of,banned%20the%20import%20of%20some.] [Aileen, "See How the One-Child Policy Changed China."]
The other prominent generation is generation Y, born between 1980 and 1995, and whose lives were marked by social and economic policies that reproduced a marked population decline. First, this generation assumed the total burden of reform policies initiated in the 1970s that triggered a transition from the planned economy toward a market-oriented economy. These refo...