2022 New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District Election
Report on New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022
Chris Pappas vs Karoline Leavitt
What kind of district is this? What are the spatial/geographic characteristics of the district? What are the demographics of the district? Where does the district "fit" within the overall political and electoral situation in its particular state during this election cycle? Are there any senate or gubernatorial races that could impact the trajectory of the House race in question?
Draw upon the history of previous elections in this district to identify whether or not the district has traditionally voted for a Republican or Democratic candidate. In this regard, what kind of a district is this politically? Has it been or is it currently a "swing" district? Here make note, if necessary or relevant, as to whether or not the district has been redrawn, due to the 2020 census, since the last election in 2020. Has any redistricting occurred and, if so, could this have any bearing on the current race? Is there an incumbent? Or is it an open seat? Are there any third-party or independent candidates of note that could impact the outcome of the race? And, if so, how?
Focus on the candidates. Draw a biographical sketch of each candidate. What are the important aspects of each candidate’s background and why do you believe these are the most important?
Look at their official campaign/candidate sites. How do the respective candidate’s position themselves to the public and what does this day about how they view the electorate in their
district.
Take a look at their campaign ads and select one or two that you feel are illustrative of the candidate’s "brand", political personality, or mage-making. Analyze and breakdown the identified ads along these lines.
Track the race and respective campaigns on a daily and weekly basis. A timeline of the race could be useful here. Track any shifts in the polling on the race and if there are any significant shifts in the predictions for the outcome of the race identify and analyze why you feel these shifts occurred. How many debates were conducted between the candidates and when? Do the best you can to watch these debates (live or on replay). Who "won" the debate(s)? And did the debate(s) "move the needle" at all in the race?
For the Democrat candidate, how did they position themselves vis-à-vis President Joe Biden and broadly within the various dynamics of the current Democratic Party? For the Republican candidate, how did they position themselves vis-à-vis former President Donald Trump and broadly within the various dynamics of the current Republican Party? Did either Biden or Trump campaign in the district? How about other politicians from outside the state? Who came to campaign for the candidates? Why were they there? What did they say? How did they do?
What are/were the key issues (cultural, social, economic, education, health care that animated and energized the respective candidates' campaigns and the race overall? How did each candidate discuss and frame these issues? Which issue do you feel resonated the most with the electorate in the district? And based upon your observations of the House of Representatives race in question, identify, examine and discuss the issues you believe are among the most resonant in contemporary American political discourse and American political culture.
What else did you see in this campaign that you feel it would be important for your reader and peers to know about? Basically, beyond the above, what struck you the most about this House of Representatives race and why?
The After. What were the results of the race? Who won and why? Based upon your knowledge of the respective campaign(s) and overall race leading up to election night, were there any surprises? How was the turnout for the election? Who voted for who and why? Were the votes of any particular group determinate in the outcome of the race and, if so, why? And, in conclusion, can you identify any takeaways from this election for observers of and voters in future races in the district and state (senator and/or Governor) in question as well as the next Presidential election in the US in 2024?
Report sample:
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Report On 2022 New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District Election
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Report On 2022 New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District Election
The Congressional District 1, NH, covers parts of Southern New Hampshire and the state's eastern portion. The district covers more than 80 communities in seven counties: Belknap, Carroll, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford. Rockingham is the most populous among the counties. The Congressional District 1 is home to the University of New Hampshire, the largest in NH State. The total land area is 2,463.65 square miles. Urban areas occupy 16.0%, while rural land is 84.0% of the total land. In 2020, Congressional District 1, NH, has a population of 684,286 people from 680,153 in 2019 (Data USA, 2022). The median age is 42.2, which is 10% higher than the US figure of 38.8. The largest age group is 50-59, accounting for 15% of the population. The number is about the same rate in New Hampshire of 15%, but 20% higher than the US rate of 13%. The lowest age group is above 80 years, which accounts for 4% of the population (Census Reporter, 2022). Regarding race and ethnicity, whites account for the largest number (89.4%). The other ethnic groups include Asian (2.76%), Hispanic (2.42%), Non-Hispanic (2.22%), and Black (1.53%) (Census Reporter, 2022). English is the most commonly spoken language in the area, with only 8.19% of the households speaking non-English languages at home as their primary shared language.
In 2003, the district elected Jeb Bradley, a Republican. Bradley was reelected in 2004. However, in 2007, Bradley lost the reelection to Carol Shea-Porter, a Democrat. Shea-Porter in 2008 and got reelected. However, she lost the reelection in 2011 to Frank Guinta, a Republican. When Guinta ran for a second term, he lost the reelection to Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter served until January 3, 2019, when she retired. Chris Pappas, a Democrat, succeeded Shea-Porter on January 3, 2019. Given that the district has been electing representatives from both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, it qualified as a swing district. Electing representatives from both divides demonstrates that each political party enjoys similar levels of support among the voters. Since Congressional District 1, NH is a swing district, it could select either a Democrat or Republican representative in the 2022 elections.
The Congressional District 1, NH, has an incumbent, Chris Pappas. He is a member of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. From 2013 to 2019, Pappas represented the 4th district on the New Hampshire Executive Council. In the 2018 election, Pappas succeeded Shea-Porter on a Democratic ticket. Incumbent Pappas would be contrasting November 8, 2022, elections after advancing for the Democratic Primary on September 13, 2022. He got 41,990 votes, which is 100% of the votes in the primaries. Pappas would face Karoline Leavitt in the November 8, 2022, elections. Leavitt ran for the Republican primary for US House New Hampshire District 1 on September 13, 2022. Nine other others run for the Republican primaries. Leavitt got 15,290 (33.4%) votes and emerged as the winner. She will be seeking to oust the uncombed through the Republican Party ticket. Matt Mowers and Gail Huff Brown came second and third with 11,650 (25.5%) and 8,143 (17.8%) votes, respectively. It is important to note that no third party or independent candidates could impact the outcome of the election.
Biological Sketch
a) Chris Pappas
Christopher Charles Pappas (Democrat) was born in Manchester on June 4, 1980, into a Greek-American family. Arthur's great-grandfather came to NH as a new American citizen in the 20th century after emigrating from Greece. A description of Chris’ background as a descendant of an immigrant great-grandfather is critical in demonstrating that he represents what America is all about; diversity. The US is a country that welcomes individuals from all walks of life as long as they are motivated to pursue the American dream. As a person who descends from an immigrant family, Chris is better placed to appeal to the American voters about his suitability to lead them.
Education
Pappas attended Manchester Central High School, where he graduated in 1998. He then proceeded to Harvard College. In college, Pappas was an active contributor to The Harvard Crimson, the student newspaper of Harvard. In 2002, Pappas graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in government (Chrispappas, 2022). The description of Pappas’ educational background is critical in demonstrating that he has the required academic qualifications to run for office. His contribution to Harvard’s student newspaper demonstrates that even as a student, Pappas actively participated in student affairs.
Business
In 1917, Arthur and his cousin Canota founded an ice cream shop in Manchester. The business grew so that by 1919, it expanded to a restaurant. Charlie Pappas, the grandfather of Chris, invented the chicken tender. Ever since, the business has remained family-owned. As of 2020, Chris Pappas was one of the owners. When Chris Pappas graduated from Harvard, he went back home, where he started his career by running the 105-year-old family restaurant (Chrispappas, 2022). Demonstrating that Chris worked in his family business will display him as a hard-working person. At the same time, it indicates that Pappas understands the needs of small businesses, having run one himself.
Early Political Career
In 1996, Pappas joined the campaign team of the then Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who was vying for governor as a volunteer. This marked Pappas’s entrance into the world of politics. In 2002, Pappas was elected into the New Hampshire House of Representatives, serving two terms. In 2006, Pappas was the treasurer of Hillsborough County. However, in 2010, Pappas lost reelection to Robert Burns. In 2012, Pappas defeated Burns and got elected into the New Hampshire Executive Council. He was reelected in 2014 and 2016. Pappas’ notable contribution was extending substance abuse treatment to 140,000 residents. He also put measures to increase substance abuse prevention, treatment, and recovery funding. Pappas also collaborated with governors of both parties to support renewable energy and infrastructure projects (House.gov, 2022). The early political carrier is important because it demonstrates Pappas’ progress to the current position he is seeking. The various positions that Pappas served are instrumental in proving to voters his performance for the position he is seeking.
US House of Representatives
In 2018, US Representative Carol Shea-Porter said she would not seek reelection. Pappas announced his bid for the seat to represent New Hampshire's 1st congressional district. On September 12, 2018, Pappas emerged as the winner in the primaries, with 42.2% of the vote. In the elections, Pappas defeated the Republican Eddie Edwards and other candidates and won the election with 53.6% of the vote, winning every country apart from Belknap County (Balotpedia, 2022). In 2020, Pappas did not get any opposition in the Democratic primary. In the elections, Pappas defeated Republican Matt Mowers and received 51.32% of the vote. The election of Pappas in 2018 and 2020 is critical in demonstrating his chances of securing the vote in the 2022 elections. Running for reelection unopposed in the Democratic primary in 2020 demonstrates the party's confidence in his candidature. If the same happens in 2022, then Pappas will have a higher chance of winning the hearts of Democratic votes.
b) Karoline Leavitt
Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1: Karoline Leavitt
Background
Karoline Leavitt was born on August 24, 1998, in New Hampshire. She is only 25 years old. She belongs to a small family in Rockingham County. She spent her early days working at Atkinson's family ice cream stand (Caroline for Congress, 2022). Including Leavitt’s age will demonstrate that she is young and energetic. As a young woman, Leavitt understands contemporary society's challenges and has the solutions to the issues. Her young age will draw young voters to her. Additionally, the humble upbringing demonstrates Leavitt has had an unrelenting work ethic and a strong sense of personal responsibility from a young age.
Education
Leavitt attended Saint Anselm College, where she graduated in 2019 with a degree in politics and communication (Caroline for Congress, 2022). In 2016, Leavitt worked for Fox News. She also worked as a producer for Hearst Television. Leavitt played women’s softball team. She also founded the Saint Anselm Broadcasting Club. The educational aspect is instrumental in boosting Leavitt’s candidature as someone with the necessary academic qualifications to run for the particular office. As a graduate, Leavitt is in a position to convince voters that she has the necessary academic qualifications to become their representative.
Volunteer Experience
Leavitt has volunteered in various places. From 2011 to 2015, Leavitt volunteered as a student mentor at the Rollins Elementary School, where she dealt majorly with children. From 2011 to 2015, Leavitt was a mentor at the Special Olympics. Between September 2018 and May 2019, Leavitt was a tutor at the Sununu Youth Services Center. Since September 2016, Leavitt has served as a meal server and student mentor at Kids Café. While in college, Leavitt volunteered at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. Leavitt’s volunteer experience is critical in indicating that she values community work. This aspect will improve her publicity as someone who loves engaging in activities that empower her community.
Work Experience
In 2018, Leavitt applied for a position in the White House to serve the American people and President Donald Trump and was accepted. At the White House, Leavitt was a Presidential Writer (Balotpedia, 2022). She later proceeded to become the assistant Press Secretary in the Press Office. In particular, Leavitt assisted prepare Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany for high-pressure briefings. She used her position to propagate President Trump’s American First agenda. In 2020, Leavitt worked on Capitol Hill as the Communications Director for Congresswoman and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik. Here, Leavitt was instrumental in the Congresswoman’s messaging and fighting against President Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and the House Democrat’s agenda (Caroline for Congress, 2022). This aspect of Leavitt’s background is important because it demonstrates her participation in political issues. It displays Leavitt as a young and ambitious person with what it takes to go for any seat. As a strong Republican supporter, Leavitt is better placed to win the vote in the party’s primaries and face the Democrat candidate.
Public Positioning
Pappas positions himself as someone who has extensive experience in the public sector. He leverages his long-term career in politics that started in 1996. Pappas seeks to demonstrate that he has the necessary experience to retain his seat as the representative of Congregational Destruct 1, NH. He displays what he has done for the people in the last two terms. As a two-term Democratic congressman, Pappas demonstrates how he has championed improving healthcare access and lowering the cost of prescription drugs. Pappas indicates that he has worked hard to combat the pandemic and protect the environment and drinking water (Chrispappas, 2022). Pappas maintains that he is the right candidate for reelection, given his previous track record. He appeals to the voters to consider him so he can continue with the good work he has done in the last two terms.
Leavitt positions herself as a champion for ordinary people. She presents herself as someone who understands the pain of ordinary citizens and promises to fight for their rights. Leavitt indicates that she will advocate for less government intervention and more economic freedom. She promises to champion free market policies, fight to cut taxes, and oppose any plans to increase taxes (Caroline for Congress, 2022). Leavitt indicates that she will support lowering taxes for corporate America to make it competitive on the global stage and create more opportunities at home. Moreover, Leavitt supports President Trump's policies to enhance stronger borders. She believes President Biden has failed to institute measures to prevent illegal access to America. Leavitt promises to work towards fighting any attempt by the Biden administration to subvert the will of the people. In other words, Leavitt presents herself as someone who seeks to protect the people against the excesses of President Biden's administration.
Analysis and Breakdown of Identified Campaign Ads
As the incumbent New Hampshire’s Congress representative, Chris Pappas is known for sponsoring legislation supporting small businesses and improving access to affordable health care for Granite State’s electorate. He has also fought for the veteran’s rights to get their dese...