Case Discussions: Business Decision Analysis

Case Discussions: Business Decision Analysis
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Case Discussions: Business Decision Analysis
Discussion 1
Decision making is the managerial function that involves the process of choosing an option between or among two or more (respectively) alternatives. Knowing whether someone made a good decision focuses on relating the results to the expectations (Hermann, 2019). Moreover, an individual can assess the desirability and the acceptability of how the goal will be achievable, which ties to its compliance with the guiding values and principles.
In making a good decision, the important factor and consideration for decision-making are whether the chosen alternative solves the prevailing problem or issue. It should be the best option among the presented choices, and its outcome should be excellent. If it meets the requirement, there are limited chances of regret because there will be a positive outcome with higher satisfaction. In contrast, we identify bad decisions by evaluating the subsequent consequences of the prevailing situation. It is a wrong decision if there are significant deviations in the outcomes from expected results, which makes them not solve the existing problem (Vordermark II, 2019). Certainly, the outcome should matter in judging whether a decision was bad or good because the whole process depends on the desired results and expectations. However, it is important to note that a decision that produces good results may not necessarily be the best since the best decisions have resulted in an undesired outcome.
Recently, made a good decision that produced a bad outcome. When I wanted to buy the best shoes for my volleyball match, I settled on a prominent brand after fulfilling my criteria based on-trend, quality, and affordability. However, I realized they were not suitable for me whenever I tried to move swiftly or jump to aerial spikes. Notably, the shoes lasted two years, and I could put them on during the weekend while hanging out to watch games. Here, the decision was good but yielded bad outcomes considering that I had specifically bought them for use in sport as a player.
On the other hand, I recently made an investment decision without conducting a critical analysis of the company of interest regarding its credibility. Later, the share prices rose, and I rushed to sell them at a higher price. While the decision was inefficient because of failure to analyze and scrutinize all the necessary information, its outcome was favorable and good. Next time, I would concentrate on outcome estimation using various criteria to avoid having higher expectations due to cognitive dissonance.
Discussion 2
Companies use forecasts for the vast advantages that it bears, which may drive success. A forecast is relevant and appropriate at the base level when it maximizes financial management, development, and operating cash flow. Information from past activities come in handy when making a prediction. For instance, salespersons forecast to know sales and use the information to ensure a certain production level that will meet the market demand. Given this comprehension, forecasting is vital to brace future uncertainties using future external and internal conditions. Hence, it is inevitable to suitably allocate resources while ensuring reduced production costs to increase revenues. As a share trader, the role of forecasting is critical. For example, I constantly have to apply it to comprehend the lucrative stocks that will trade at better prices in the future.
Other than quantitative forecasting, the drift method allows the prediction to decrease or increase over time. The average data arising from the historical data stems from the amount of change during a period. This approach is used to attain any data that has a trend. Besides, there is an average approach that applies the use of previous data to predict future figures. Marston et al., 2016) assert that it applies to all past data that have gaps. When developing a forecast, it is vital to consider being realistic and honest. It is important to think of factors like inflation that are bound to affect future values. Also, one must think of the possibility of fluctuations which are always unanticipated. The major pitfalls include costliness and unreliability since they are never 100% accurate.
Discussion 3
When making decisions, a company should consider ethical principles and values. For instance, it should ensure there is trust, fairness, and respect. Besides, it should uphold justice to ascertain that opportunities, burden, and health equally share among all people. Today, most organizations do not meet these ethical standards, as seen in most studies on organizational behavior. In the present world, organizations are mainly concentrating on the objectives and goals of making profits regardless of the means (Proctor, 2018). Given this situation, there is a lot of ill-treatment of staff from management, as seen in several firings without valid reasons. Additionally, pay increments and promotions have taken a personal dimension, with people getting favors based on their relationships with management instead of performance. Given the opportunity to develop "Ethical Guidelines for Making Business Decisions," I would include ethical organizational culture, employee ethics, leadership ethics, and organization benefits.
Discussion 4
When strategizing production in the complex environment, the manager at Chevron has to account for a cost-effective production process to increase profits and ensure goods are delivered timely to consumers. Besides, it will be critical to ascertain that employees are appropriately assigned their jobs based on experience and qualifications to work optimally (Schwartz, 2017). This technique also reduces the employees’ turnover rate. The manager must ensure coordination among the departments concerning production to keep them informed of important activities. Overall, there will be an inevitable need to account for the best practice to improve customer satisfaction because it is likely to be the greatest challenge, considering the organization size.
Discussion 5
At the problem definition stage, the most prominent errors include the failure to address or solve the root cause of the error and a possible generalization of statements, which hinders solving specific errors (Berman, 2020). For instance, my brother wanted to buy a motorbike to use while going for a daily workout. However, he failed to lay out the particular facts that would define the problem, including required mileage, riding style, and budget. This error led to wastage relating to the identification of alternatives. In the alternative identification stage, the major error relates to inadequately informed people and unreliable sources for alternative identification. For example, I decided to buy an original football jersey. When I asked, he gave me one that had been previously worn. This error had me buy a second-hand jersey because the attendant had inadequate information.
When determining criteria, one may easily deviate from the requirements highlighted in the problem originally (Berman, 2020). For example, as we brainstormed on company valuation, we decided that the dividend growth rate was unnecessary, yet it was vital in the computation. This error led to arriving at a wrong answer because it was impractical to calculate the company's value without using interest in a dividend growth rate. As one evaluates alternatives, there may be an error resulting from a lack of accurate data. For example, missing share prices may hinder the calculation of a stock's future value, leading to a wrong answer and the need to scrutinize financial statements fur...