Research Proposal: HIV

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Research Proposal
1 Introduction
The Main Research Question
The latest news by ECDC indicates that HIV cases have risen in Europe in the past one year particularly Russia which also experiences challenge in the treatment. Even though many people are diagnosed with HIV in Russia, only a few are linked to care, but what remains crucial is that HIV prevalence increases in the east while decreasing in west. The research proposal is therefore intended to understand the news item which is about the reasons behind the HIV rise in Europe as was reported by ECDC. The research proposal will develop an evolutionary game-theoretic model to explain how social stigma and adopted behavioural traits affect the transmission of HIV across a population. The research will use a two-person relationship which will signal game as a stage game, and the evolutionary model will illustrate an interaction between the people who test HIV negative and those that are HIV positive as well as two behaviour traits. The behaviour traits will include those that will be honest enough to report their status or not and those that will accept their relationship or not. The manner in which HIV is transmitted primarily depends on the social interactions and the social stigma that the HIV favourable condition is associated with tends to deter people from being honest about their conditions.
Literature Review and the Contribution
A game theoretic model can be designed to explain the human behavior and the only way to stop the spread of HIV is through abstinence or using protection. Meaning that engaging in responsible and protected sex can help reduce the spread because it makes the speed at which it prevents speech. Game theory analysis uncovers helps in uncovering factors that help in the spread of HIV. Game theory has played a critical role to enable methodical demonstration of tactical behaviours among symbiotic agents and provides an excellent platform for systematic theorising the undercurrents of the way the disease is transmitted. The latest study in evolutionary game theory tends to explain the increase or decrease of certain behaviour personalities within or across populaces, thus presenting a critical platform for modelling the time lines of disease conditions. Information economics has also helped in understanding how available information can sometimes trigger strategic manipulation while the social preference theory specifies utility payoffs to social factors.
The literature review tends to dwell on the rates of HIV transmission, particularly the approaches applied to modeling numerous influences of human behaviour on the way the disease is spread which are then summarised into seven basic assertions about transmission I what is popularly known as the Funk et al. basic assertions about disease transmission. In the first assertion, the SIR model offers a theoretical foundation to model the spread of diseases by dividing the populace into the sets of susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SIR model further offers two parameters that define the level in which disease is transmitted. In the second proclamation, Funk et al. noted that the sources of information also tend to influence the rate at which a virus is transmitted and in the third one, they argue that the type of available information affects the rate of transmission. They say in the fourth claim that human behaviour affects disease transmission and that analysts can successfully apply game theory to model appropriate choices in the fifth assertion. In the sixth statement, Funk et al. argue that behavioural traits that relate to the transmission of diseases can be conveyed among people and lastly says that the confined societal system structure influences the diffusion of information, behavioural qualities and the rate of contagion across populations which summarises the seven fundamental assertions.
Schroeder and Rojas used game theory model to scrutinise possible revelation of HIV status in which they found two possible equilibria and further linked their micro-level game outcomes to macro-level populations refinements through the incorporation of populace simulations in which the authors noted that levels of transmission could fluctuate between high and low levels. The authors deduced that high rates led to the use of preventive measures which also led to the decrease of the rate of transmission and vice versa pointing out that analysing HIV transmission using game theory is more beneficial because it addresses strategic interactions and enables selective revelation. Also, there has been the study of standard features that affect expose of illness status and the rate of transmission in which Funk et al. said that social stigma and other related variables as the main primary influences because the social stigma discourages disclosure as also concluded by Smith et al.
The Organization of the Proposal
The research will be organised in different sections including the conceptual framework, study design and the conclusion. Evolutionary game theory will be explained in details under the conceptual framework, and the differences between the evolutionary game theory and the classical game theory will be described in detail. The research will combine both the evolutionary game theory and the SIR model to justify some of the Funk et al.'s assertions while also paying closer attention to the availability of information which will be combined with the SIR disease transmission model. In the study design, an evolutionary model will be combined with the SIR model to explain how social stigma and adopted behavioural traits affect the transmission of HIV across a population.
2 A Conceptual Framework
Generally, people’s behavior tends to affect the spread of HIV and using game theory, it may reveal the significance of information in inspiring the right response. It is also worth noting that worry can sometimes may spread wider than the risk of being affected by HIV hence the need to study the dynamics of infection in line with behavior changes because behavior responses in times of an epidemic can be used as a survival strategy. Applying game theory to study strategic choices made can be integral in modelling the behavior. In most cases, people would change their behavior depending on the people around them behave as well as their risk of being infected and that people tend to change their behavior when they discuss it with people who behave differently. Also, absence of epidemic would make people normally but in case of a danger such as HIV, they behave differently which may be costly or there may be a payoff because the change in behavior may mean that they are likely not affected.
The research will extend the literature by combining both evolutionary game-theoretic approach with SIR model which will be vital in addressing some of Funk et al.’s proclamations and applying the theory to the spread of disease induced behaviours across populations (Ferguson and Nguyen 175). Also, the research will consider causes and accessibility of information which will be combined with the SIR disease dissemination model while in the case of Schroeder and Rojas, there will be linking of micro-behaviour that is dependent on a game-theoretical model to macro-level population outcomes even though the method applied will not be consistent with their five vital respects because in the research, we shall use an evolutionary game model alongside the population simulation and a statement about an individual’s HIV status will be used instead of an action of applying or not applying for protection. Also, the model will link social stigma to agent’s tendencies to honestly reveal their HIV status in which there will be two types of model that will be as...