New Voters of Trump Brought to Republican Party in 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections

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Final Project
Part One
The presidential elections between 2008 to 2020 were a period of marked political realignment where counties that were traditional strongholds for both Republican and Democratic parties shifted towards the opposite side. Voters’ support for the two parties changed significantly in the 12 years, especially in rural regions, which had supported the Democratic Party for many years since Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency. While Democrats lost their electoral strength in more rural areas, the Republicans decreased their influence in populated areas, particularly around metropolitan cities (Mejia and Skelley). Republicans made significant gains in the less populated areas, particularly in the industrial counties of northeastern Ohio, the coalfield counties of West Virginia and eastern Kentucky, as well as the small towns of Wisconsin and Iowa. On the other hand, the Democrats managed to secure votes in a majority of the most populous counties in the U.S., thereby compensating for the loss of sparsely-populated rural counties (Jacobson). On the whole, it appears that the Democratic Party’s rhetoric and stances are not as readily received throughout the country as they were in previous years. This development could affect the party’s competitiveness as legislative and congressional district lines are drawn.
Of the ten counties with the most highly educated populations, five are from the state of Massachusetts. The county where votes shifted most strongly to the Democrats between 2008 and 2020 was Rockdale County in Georgia. The Democratic Party improved by 15.70528 in this county over the 12 years. On the other hand, the county where votes shifted most strongly to the Republicans between 2008 and 2020 was Elliott County in Kentucky. The Republican Party improved by 42.31234 in this county over the 12 years. The county in which Joe Biden attained his highest share of the two-party vote in 2020 was Baltimore County in Maryland. Conversely, Donald Trump attained his highest share of the two-party vote in 2020 in McPherson County in Kansas. Mortality rates owing to substance abuse are highly geographically concentrated in 30 counties. They have leaped the highest over the past three decades, situated in six contiguous states: West Virginia, Maryland, New Hampshire, Ohio, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Of the ten counties with the lowest unemployment rate in 2015, six were located in Nebraska. Part of the reason for the low unemployment rates in Nebraska was the fact that it is a rural state with fewer people per job, state policies that discourage unemployment, and more jobs concentrated in essential industries such as agriculture and food production.
The geographical patterns of population growth and decline across the U.S. over the ten years preceding Donald Trump’s election in 2016 show marked county population increases in the western, southern, and southeastern states of between 5% and 10%, whereas middle and northeastern states reported population decreases of the same percentage. A majority of the states with considerable population gains are, for the most part, urban, while those that experienced a declining population are situated in rural areas. The struggle in certain counties situated in West Virginia, Kansas, Arizona, Mississippi, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Wisconsin, among others, are tied to economic stagnation and an expanding aging population. Most of these states lack adequate farm and factory labor to stay productive owing to cutbacks in immigration amidst an aging population of baby boomers and the younger generation postponing childbearing (Wicks). On the other hand, the western, southern, and southeastern states with friendly immigration policies have witnessed higher population numbers. Besides, millennials and generation Z tend to flee rural areas for large metropolitan areas where better-paying jobs are urban attractions situated in stronger economies over and above. Based upon what I see in the two maps, it appears that Republicans gained in places that are losing population, although the party did well in some states that saw an increase in their population, such as Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Part Two
Donald Trump’s election in 2016 and its aftermath represent a new era in American politics in that his tendency to deviate from standard presidential norms may have started precedence of norm-breaking and pseudo-autocracy. The American presidency is an institution steeped in tradition where incumbent leaders have strived to follow the precepts set by former presidents. Trump was the first president to break away from traditional norms in such ways as to undermine the traditions set by previous presidents, thereby underminin...