The Prime Minister has recently proposed a ban on selling tobacco products to anyone under a certain age, with that age increasing annually by one year; the effect would be that today's 14-year-olds would never be able legally to purchase a cigarette. Write a report for the NHS assessing this pol

Analysis of the Proposed Tobacco Sales Restriction Policy and Its Implications for the Economy, the NHS, and Society By: Course name: Instructor: Institutional: Date: Table of Contents TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u Introduction PAGEREF _Toc156391011 \h 3Impact on Public Health and NHS Costs PAGEREF _Toc156391012 \h 4Attaining Set Public Health Objectives PAGEREF _Toc156391013 \h 4Potential Relief on NHS Resources PAGEREF _Toc156391014 \h 6Economic Implications PAGEREF _Toc156391015 \h 8Shift in Industry’s Economic Dynamics PAGEREF _Toc156391016 \h 9Unlocking New Job Markets PAGEREF _Toc156391017 \h 11Transitioning to a Healthier Economy PAGEREF _Toc156391018 \h 12Conclusion and Recommendation PAGEREF _Toc156391019 \h 12Conclusion PAGEREF _Toc156391020 \h 13Recommendations PAGEREF _Toc156391021 \h 14References PAGEREF _Toc156391022 \h 16 Introduction On October 4, 2023, Rishi Sunak, the prime minister of the United Kingdom (UK) unveiled a proposal that if enacted will translate to a major paradigm shift in the UK's approach to tobacco management and control. According to this proposed law, the government is set to prohibit the sale of tobacco to any individual born after January 1, 2009, with an annual increase in the legal smoking age until it covers the entire UK population. The goal according to the Prime Minister is to save thousands of lives from preventable diseases while also saving the National Health Service (NHS) thousands of pounds. Smoking is a major issue in the UK today and the Office for National Statistics reports that 6.4 million (13%) people smoke cigarettes, with people aged 25-43 years being the highest population category of all current smokers (16.3%) and those aged 65+ being only 8.3% of total smokers as per 2022. The proposed law is guided by the huge health and financial implications of tobacco usage, whereby approximately 76,000 people die annually from tobacco-related complications and others develop fatal and irreversible complications that become costly at both individual and state levels (NHS, 2023). Reducing the smoking rate to less than 5% is critical for the NHS and the UK government to achieve its commitment to promoting healthy life expectancy by about five years and also reducing the huge burden of health inequalities by 2030 as reported in the findings of the Khan Report, the independent examination commissioned by the UK government in 2022 (OBE, 2022, pp.12). Khan's report highlighted that smoking was the biggest cause of preventable diseases including heart diseases, cancer (attributing to one in every four deaths in England), lung diseases, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), among others. In agreement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) highlights that smoking increases the risk of suffering from tuberculosis and problems of the immune system, including rheumatoid arthritis. Rishi Sunak, the UK’s prime minister’s smoking proposal which seeks to phase out the sale of cigarettes, has had a great impact on the UK's public health, NHS costs, and the economy as a whole. Impact on Public Health and NHS Costs The plan to stop people born on January 1 2009 from ever smoking through incremental of the legal age is primarily critical in the mitigation of the public health burden associated with tobacco consumption. People aged 24-35 years are the largest category of smokers and reducing smoking prevalence, particularly in this demographic category, will decrease the incidence of tobacco-related diseases almost three-fold thus relieving NHS from the harsh financial strains. The impact of this policy on public health and NHS costs is well explained as follows: Attaining Set Public Health Objectives 24568152383155019431005151120Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1: OBE, 2022, pp.20Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1: OBE, 2022, pp.20According to the Khan Review, the independent review commissioned by the UK Government and conducted by Javed Khan OBE, the goal of the current UK government is to reduce the smoking rate to <5% by 2030, to extend the overall healthy life expectancy of all UK population by 5 years, and to successfully lower the huge burden of health inequalities in the UK (The Khan Review, 2022). These are the key drivers for the introduction of the “Proposed Tobacco Sales Restriction Policy” by the prime minister. With the smoking rate currently standing at about 13%, it means that the overall healthy lifestyle expectancy is low, and the burden borne by the state in treating smoking-related diseases is huge. This is why the policy seeks to “stop the start by reducing the number of people taking up smoking, particularly young people” (OBE, 2022, pp. 20). Several studies on the smoking trajectories from adolescence to adulthood agree that smoking progression starts from adolescence and proceeds to young adulthood, with persistent smoking habits being recorded around age 23-25 (Tam and Fong, 2023). Simply put, most smokers start experimenting in late adolescence and achieve a stable smoking pattern by about 24 years, with the pattern proceeding to their thirties and even forties. According to Khan’s report, young adulthood remains the developmental period that determines personal trajectories with smoking, and preventing escalation right in young adulthood has always been the missing link between prevention and cessation of smoking. Over the years, the prevention of smoking has significantly failed because the vulnerable, who are the young adults, have had the freedom to experiment with tobacco products and slowly establish cigarette smoking habits which they carry with them to their early and late adulthood because for the majority, not starting is easier than learning to quit (OBE, 2022, p. 19). The Proposed Tobacco Sales Restriction Policy, ensures that young adults never have a chance to start smoking making it possible for future generations to not only stay healthy but also relieve NHS of the major resource burden being experienced today. With the new policy, the sale of cigars and other tobacco products is prohibited to any person born after January 1, 2009, meaning that the model reshapes how we think about smoking by interrupting the transition between experimentation and establishing smoking behaviors that often occur during the young adulthood phase. One major advantage of the policy, in as much as mitigating the pervasive public health challenges linked to tobacco use, is that it can significantly reduce cases of smoking among the younger demographic, where smoking initiation often occurs. This strategy starts with young adults and then scales over time to cover the broader population base; a plan that captures change longitudinally. The results of the policy are to create a smoke-free society which is in line with NHS's key priority of having an adult prevalence of 5% or less by 2030 (OBE, 2022, p. 21). As such, this policy offers the right framework and strategy to diminish smoking prevalence. With the phased increase in legal age, there will be a cascading effect that gradually translates to a limited number of individuals initiating smoking. Ideally, this model is vital for long-term public health gains mainly because it sets the basis for eliminating triggers to smoking and escalations and establishing correct self-affirmation measures. Technically, most smokers never plan or want to smoke, but yet a good percentage end up smoking or using nicotine products. With the policy in place, the chain is broken and events interrupted so that young adults learn to follow healthy patterns. Accordingly, the policy serves to remind individuals, especially young adults, of an identity consistent with self-image including ambition, health, appearance, and consciousness (Villanti, 2019, p. 377). All these put together will ensure that the government attains its strategic goals of <5% Potential Relief on NHS Resources Cigarette usage is not a lifestyle decision but a dependency problem requiring treatment. A new analysis of the UK NHS finds the cost of treating and managing smoking and its related consequences to be higher than previously estimated. Commissioned by the charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) the figures show that the cost of smoking to society stands at about £17.04 billion for England alone annually (Action on Smoking and Health, 2022). The reason for high costs is attributed to the fact that smokers require more healthcare as compared to the non-smoker population. NHS data shows that there were about 506,100 admissions attributed to smoking in 2022. Additionally, smokers are in constant need of health and social care often at younger ages as compared to non-smokers which costs NHS an extra £2.4bn and an additional £1.2billion for social care costs. In addition to NHS-related costs, smokers' medical needs are often met informally by family and friends at an estimated cost total of £14bn across the UK annually, a figure not included in the NHS £17bn, and stands as a major indicator of the criticality of smoking on both NHS and the wider society (Tam and Fong, 2023). The new policy seeks to prohibit the sale of cigarettes to individuals born after January 1, 2009, a move that offers huge potential relief to NHS resources. With a decrease in tobacco-related diseases as a result of the policy, there will be a more efficient resource allocation within the NHS, thus allowing the healthcare system to address non-preventable health-related issues. Additionally, the policy is a pathway to premature death prevention, lung cancer reduction, and better maternal and child death outcomes. With about 79,000 lives lost annually to tobacco-related diseases, the policy sets a new model to resolve this crisis by preventing the escalation of cigarette smoking which typically occurs in young adulthood. According to Isip and Calvert (2020), young adults are always vulnerable to cigarette use because they have be...