Impact of China’s Economic Development on Levels of PM2.5 Value in the Air

IB Environmental Systems and Societies
IA Task
World Count: 2217
IB Number: md847 (050621 0020)
Student’s Name: Shiyi Yu
Research Question
What impact does China’s economic development have on levels of PM2.5 value in the air at the beginning stage of its economic development?
Hypothesis:
If economic development is fast, the PM2.5 value in the air will increase due to all the industrial discharge produced by factories, vehicles, and so on.
Air pollution is a common environmental health hazard. Often, when brown haze takes the atmosphere of a city or vehicles in busy highways exhaust billows, the idea of pollution arises. Still, some pollution is not seen, however, its pungent smell is an alarm. In essence, air pollution it’s the toxic mix of dangerous substances both from human-made as well as natural resources. Notably, emissions emerge from vehicle emissions, fossil fuels, by-products of power generation and manufacturing such as coal-fueled power plants, and chemical production. Likewise, nature releases poisonous substances into the air, such as smoke from wildfire or ash from volcanic eruptions. Gases like methane that originate from decomposing organic material also contribute to pollution. These fine particles from pollution have names. And one example is PM2.5. PM stands for particulate matter (also called particle pollution): the term for a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air. PM2.5 refers to the fine particles that have diameters of 2.5 micrometers or smaller (EPA, 2020). PM 2.5 is especially harmful to human body since it go directly into deep lung and causes damage due to its size (Xing,Y., Xu, Y., Shi, M., & Lian, X., 2016).
China has an economy that experienced the fastest growth in the past three decades. Its gross domestic product (GDP) grew from less than $400 billion in 1990 to more than 6 trillion US dollars in 2010, one of the fastest economic growths compared to the rest of other countries in the same period of time. Due to the rapid economic growth, China burned a lot of coal, built several factories, and produced many vehicles. As a result, industrial and population growth contributed to the amount of environmental and air pollution.
Notably, energy consumption and production in China and production are the leading contributors of pollution. Beginning 2003, China ranked second as the largest energy consumer after the United States (Crompton & Wu, 2004). This was likely because of the nation’s tremendous economic growth due to its economic reforms beginning 1970s that subsequently raised its GDP. In the early 1990s, only 1% of the air quality in 500 Chinese cities were polluted. Beginning the new millennium, nearly 75% of air quality was polluted.
It is important to define the relation between economic development and air pollution in China because it will underscore the role of economic development in air pollution. Whenever nations industrialize and focus on the manufacturing sector, levels of air pollution rise at unprecedented rates. PM 2.5 causes damage not only to human beings but also to animals in the environment. Diseases caused by fine dust include bronchial asthma, lung cancer, cardio cerebral vascular diseases, and diabetes (Kang, D. & Kim, J., 2014). Finding the relationship between economic development and PM 2.5 value will offer reference to better develop policies of environment protection while developing the economy.
Planning:
This study evaluated the time period between 1991 and 2017 to examine a possible relationship between China’s annual GDP growth rate and PM 2.5 value. The data was basically inferred and interpreted based on the findings. Even though China’s open-door policy started in 1978, the Tiananmen Square Massacre (the Chinese troops fired and killed thousands of students’ protests asking for freedom of speech at Tiananmen Square) affected the entire nation for a few months, the economy took off again near the end of 1990. Data on China’s annual GDP growth rate and PM 2.5 value are collected from The World Bank Data Bank, which contains an international database provided by almost every country covering various topics.
Variables Table

Named Variables

Units

Procedure for measurement/control

Independent

GDP growth rate

%

Published data

Dependent

PM 2.5

Micrograms per cubic meter

Published Data

Source: World Bank Data Bank
Since this study uses a secondary database, there is no personal health risk in this research. For the first hand data collectors in China, there are minimal health risks. At each air quality monitoring site, the real time concentration of PM 2.5 is measured and recorded with detectors. Data from various sites are sent into the central system and the national PM 2.5 value is computed. However, technicians patrol and maintain the air quality detectors, during which they are exposed to the open air and potential health risk (Zhang, Y. & Fang, C., 2015). This procedure is ethical because they were asked to volunteer and no financial compensation (except health insurance) was given to the technicians. In addition, this study uses the Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis to explain the economic situation of China and how it has rescued millions from poverty.
Control Variable Table
What is being controlled?

Why is it being controlled?

How is it being controlled?

Type of pollutant

The use of natural resources and the release of pollutants cause more PM2.5 and growth of industry during the process of economic development. Outside, the PM2.5 particles come directly from transportation such as cars, trucks, buses, and all other kinds of vehicles. Besides these, the particles also appear in the burning of fuels such as wood, heating oil, or coal and natural sources such as wood, heating oil, or coal and natural sources such as forest and grass fires (Department of Health, 2021). It is formed by the combustion in motor vehicles, power plants, heating units, and industrial plants that produce particulate matter and gaseous substances (sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) (Sundar, S. & Naresh, R., 2017). If other pollutants are included, the direct relationship between PM 2.5 and economic development will not be detected.

By using PM 2.5 as the only type of pollutants.

Location-China

To focus only on the relationship between economic growth and one particular location

Only using published data about China from World Bank

Years (1991-2017)

To compare PM 2.5 levels at the beginning of the fast development rate to later more stable economic period.

Only use published data from these years.

Source: (Zhang, Y. & Fang, C., 2015)
Results, analysis, and conclusion.
The data in the third column were obtained directly from World Bank Data Bank, and Stata (an all statistical function software) was used to fill in all the missing years’ data on PM 2.5. The edited and complete PM 2.5 values were placed in the fourth column. Using regression imputation is a common way to handle missing values when analyzing time-series data (Kang, H., 2013).
Table 1: Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) & PM 2.5 (mg/m^3)
Year

GDP growth rate (%)

Initial pm 2.5 value

Edited data pm 2.5

1991

9.29

--

57.98

1992

14.2

--

58.16

1993

13.9

--

58.34

A1994

13.1

--

58.52

1995

10.9

58.7

58.7

1996

9.93

--

59.1

1997

9.23

--

59.5

1998

7.84

--

59.9

1999

7.67

--

60.3

2000

8.49

60.7

60.7

2001

8.34

--

61.8

2002

9.13

--

62.9

2003

10

--

64

2004

10.1

--

65.1

2005

11.4

--

66.2

2006

12.7

66.2

66.86

2007

14.2

--

67.52

2008

9.65

--

68.18

2009

9.4

--

68.84

2010

10.6

69.5

69.5

2011

9.55

70.5

70.5

2012

7.86

63.8

63.8

2013

7.77

65.5

65.5

2014

7.42

59.8

59.8

2015

7.04

59.1

59.1

2016

6.85

52.2

52.2

2017

6.95

52.7

52.7

Data Processing
The graphs below were created with excel with the data collected from World Bank and edited PM 2.5 made by Stata.
Graph 1: China’s Annual GDP Growth Rate from 1991 to 2017
Graph 1 illustrates that China’s annual GDP growth rate kept at a high level of above 10% from 1992 until 1996. The growth rate began to slow down to around 7% from 1998 to 2000, which is still very high compared to other countries during the same time period. For example, the U.S. had around 4.5% of growth rate f...