What a Decline in the Population Means for the Future of China

Monserrat Monroy
Professor Szcerba
Business, Technology, and Our Global Future
Date
How China’s Population Decline Affects the World
Introduction
As of 2019, 1.398 billion people reside in China, making this figure the largest population in the world. Although it may seem like many people, and considering that it is the largest population, one would think there would be no future problems. However, there has been a decline in the growth of China’s population, which sets the tone for possible demographic, economic, and even political crises soon. For years, China has implemented policies to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation. One of the most famous policies is limiting a couple to only having one child. Although it was later raised to a limit of two children in 2016 in hopes of a baby boom, the shift failed to work. In this paper, I will describe what a decline in the population means for the future of China. A significant factor would be how this decline in the population also affects the rest of the world.
History of “negative growth” in China
The population of China has been experiencing a negative growth rate for some time now. For instance, it depicted the slowest rate in the 2010s decade compared to the previous ones, raising concerns about its capacity to support the nation’s robust economy. Skewed statistics from the 2020 census estimated that the population of mainland China would increase by 5.38 percent to 1.41 billion (Black and Morrison). The approximations were the lowest number ever recorded since the onset of China’s census in 1953. Although many previous changes in the nation are to blame for the declining rate, the one-child policy accelerated this shift. The radical policy was launched in 1979 and remained in operation for years until its abolishment by 2015. It enforced severe measures to force all couples to limit their number of births to one child (Black and Morrison). The policy aimed to control the rapidly expanding population to avoid economic suppression, social and environmental elements.
The one-child policy led to a drastic decline in the fertility rate. In 2020, the recorded rate was 1.3 children per woman, corresponding to aging nations such as Italy and Japan (Woo and Yao). Such demographic results were against the nation’s target of 1.8 children per woman to ensure it amassed a population of 1.42 billion by the end of 2020 (Woo and Yao). Some popular arguments indicate that the policy could have prevented between 200–400 million births in the republic (Myers et al.). Such figures illustrate the aggressiveness of the measures taken by the government and their eventual negative consequences.
The dynamics emerging from the implementation of such a draconian regulation led to gender imbalances. Evidence indicates the preference for males meant that the country had a gender deficit of females to achieve the desired balance. As a result, the existing gender imbalance rose to approximately 3 to 4% more males than females (Marois et al. 3). Over the years, this preferential focus on one gender led to 33 million more men than women in China. The imbalance triggered a progressive decline in the nation’s fertility. Moreover, only a few women qualified for child-bearing age, leading to a slow population growth rate.
China also grappled with a dwindling labor shortage as more people transitioned from work due to old age without a comparable replacement. Such a situation also increased the dependency burden because the improved economic and health sector had reduced mortality rates, increasing life expectancy. Projections indicate that the impact of the policy would have led China to have a third of its population over 60 years by 2050 (Black and Morrison). It indicates that the job market suffered a labor shortage since more people retired, and the positions left had no replacements. Thus, it created a progressive shortage without immediate solutions.
The Effects of Negative Growth on China’s Working-Age Population
Facts reveal that the negative growth index in China has far more effects on the working population than premeditated. For instance, the dependency ratio has drastically increased due to the decline in population growth and the rise in the aging population since the improvements made by the government in medical infrastructure and social welfare have increased life expectancy. The comparatively smaller working group has to share the burden of providing for the elderly and the young. For instance, Coonan indicates that more people now live longer, from 44.6 years in 1950 to 75.3 years in 2015, a difference of about 30 years (Coonan). The concerning aspect is that more longevity is expected in the current decade. Such an aspect illustrates the continued contraction of the working groups as more people retire from their jobs and fewer young people take up employment opportunities. Thus, the pressure extends to the overall working population.
Statistics paint a concerning image of the population-related burden in China. For instance, the estimated working-age population, between 15 and 64 years, was 988.3 million as of 2017 (Myers et al.). In contrast to the previous year, the recorded number was a significant drop by a margin of 70 million people. The considerable reduction meant that fewer people could work and develop the economy. The 70 million resulted from a higher number of retirements among aging adults and a lower mortality rate. In the subsequent years since the onset of the one-child policy, the working-age population has been subjected to more working hours and less leisure time. Such trends have been propelled by the increased need to cater to the high financial costs of the elderly and child care. Since negative population growth led to lower labor participation rates in recent decades, the remaining working population has to invest more time and resources in their dependent family members and relatives.
The Impacts of Negative Growth on the World
The effects of the negative growth of China’s population extend beyond its borders into the rest of the world. Marois et al. indicate that low fertility is commonly linked to population aging, negatively affecting the global economy (5). Since China is the largest producer and exporter of agriculture, assembled assortments, machinery, and textiles, the reduction of labor capacity suggests that the country has a lower ability to produce goods and services to satisfy the global demands (Marois et al. 5). For instance, most American electronic products are assembled in China due to the availability of labor. Thus, a decline reflects a looming economic downfall due to lower volumes of exported products. Since the consumers of a majority of products and se...