The Likelihood of the US Vaccinated Population Gets Covid-19

SUBJECT: The likelihood of the US vaccinated population Gets Covid-19
There are three types of vaccines validated in the US, which include Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson. People choose which one they would like to get based on their physical conditions. The problem is that vaccination, even after the second dose, does not guarantee a 100% safety from the exposure to positive cases. That means people who are vaccinated can still get infected by Covid-19. Everyone who is vaccinated has the problem because of the occurrence of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant and the two doses of vaccines may not protect them from infection. The entire population is affected because now they cannot assume that vaccinated people are safe from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The virus infection rate is escalating; people do not know if the vaccines they have received still protect them. Since the number of positive cases diagnosed increases while 53% of the U.S. population have fully vaccinated, some people lose faith in those vaccines and may refuse to get vaccinated. The government may find it increasingly hard to leverage vaccines for mitigation of the public health crisis. Also, it may cause turmoil and hinder economic growth.
In face of the current dilemma, the first alternative is that the government can set up an incentive plan to encourage those people who are hesitant to get a vaccine. For example, the local government can hold a lottery activity for people who have been vaccinated. Lottery activities will not only reward people who have been vaccinated, but also will building advocates. On social media platforms, some key opinion leaders (KOL) or celebrities can influence many people. Those advocates can convince others who once refused to get a vaccine of its great benefits. However, it is tough to let all local governments hold lottery activities and maintain the same standards for all activities. The second alternative is to develop a tracing system to connect with unvaccinated people and encourage them through continuous communication. Also, the system can monitor the timeframe of booster shots to check how booster shots protect people from breakthrough infections. This process will improve transparency in vaccination and reduce unvaccinated people infecting vaccinated people.
Encouraging the public to get vaccinated is a wise strategy because it lowers the risk of infection. As the infection continues to escalate, people should continue to practice social distance and wear masks whenever they go out to public space.
Analysis Framework
Focusing on the current situations related to the likeliness for the American vaccinated population to get infected by the coronavirus, it is necessary and beneficial to carry out a stakeholder analysis or review of the key decision makers. In the anti-pandemic movements to reduce the likeliness for the American vaccinated population to get infected by the Covid-19, policy makers related to disease control and prevention counts as the most important and influential decision makers or stakeholders. In detailed words, policy makers who could adopt a top-down approach for encouraging vaccine injection, improving hygiene and social distancing mandates. For instance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States sets guidelines for travels and release information for vaccines to mobilize citizens’ injection of vaccines to reduce the risk of infection (CDC, 2021). Alternatively, CDC advisory panels list health workers and residents sand staff of long-term care facilities as the first shots of Covid-19 vaccines (Cohen, 2020). In this sense, governmental authorities and policymakers count as the primary stakeholder. In addition to top policy makers or governmental authorities, ordinary citizens also count as a crucial stakeholder. Individuals are the primary decision maker to determine what should have been done to protect themselves from the coronavirus disease and prevent widespread of the virus among their neighborhoods or a large social community. Besides, healthcare providers such as medical professionals, doctors, nurses or alike can also play an important role in the mobilizing effort to fight against the pandemic. As mentioned by the World Health Organization (WHO), healthcare professionals and public healthcare providers perform and important role in discussing with their patients about vaccination or other countermeasures against COVID-19 (WHO, 2021). In this sense, professionals and service providers in the healthcare system should be evaluated as a key decision maker or stakeholder for policy design and delivery for anti-pandemic. Media also plays an important role in mobilizing public participant in anti-pandemic movements in various ways. Focusing on German Lopez’s media coverage about America’s lack of clarity in anti-pandemic goals and its series of questions for decision makers, he engages policymakers, experts, and the general public to ponder over two central issues, which include how much Covid-19 deaths could be identified as too many and what should have been done to prevent such death tolls (Lopez, 2021). These stakeholders make a difference in the anti-pandemic outcomes.
Further still, a thorough understanding and evaluation of alternatives and objectives could help with a clear understanding about the risk or likeliness for the American vaccinated population to get infected by the Covid-19. In general, the abovementioned decision makers or stakeholders involved in the anti-pandemic effort face three major types of alternatives which respectively have three major objectives concerning sustainability, cost, and time or duration. The first option is for stakeholders to let current trends to continue and make no additional effort to prevent widespread of the pandemic. This option could mean low sustainability due to mutation and spread of the virus, high cost caused by quarantine and hospitalization etc., and long duration for recovering from the pandemic. Second to this quite passive anti-pandemic measure, decision makers mentioned above and policymakers in particular could encourage more individuals to get vaccinated. This seems to be a better option than the first one because of its high sustainability, medium cost, and also medium duration. In more detailed words, vaccination could provide Americans with the first layer of protection from the Covid-19 pandemic, even though the country and its healthcare experts need to upgrade vaccine in the long run, particularly when mutation occurs. Besides, this option might be time-consuming to some extent, because some Americans might not have easy access to vaccines. Even though CDC never requires U.S. citizenship for Americans to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, minority groups and individuals might not gain easy access to quality vaccine to mitigate the public health crisis, as mentioned by Michael George DeSombre and Scott Brown (2021). Hence this option could mean both effectiveness and uncertainty in protection Americans from the Covid-19 pandemic. Further still, improving personal hygience also turns out to be a potential option for make a difference to the likelihood of the US vaccinated population Gets Covid-19. Briefly speaking, it is plausible for high level of sustainability, low cost, and medium level of time or duration. As a supplementary to vaccination, improvement of personal hygiene provides Americans with a second layer to protect themselves from the virus in a cost-effective way, even though it could take time to identify and consolidate thee benefits.
Data and expert judgments
Consequence Table
Based on the consequence table below, the data shows that the likelihood of individuals dying from coronavirus decreases the likelihood of dying from coronavirus. Based on the data, the people dying from coronavirus were more when for the unvaccinated people compared to those who were vaccinated. As the vaccine is assimilated into the body, the lower the chances of contracting coronavirus. As the data shows, within the first three weeks of the 1st dose, the deaths attributed to coronavirus were lower. After the first dose, the probability of death increased, with more than 7000 deaths recorded. However, the number of people dying from the vaccine was much lower for people who had completed the vaccine dose. This implies that the risks of contracting coronavirus were lower after receiving the vaccine compared to people living without the vaccine. In this regard, it is important to ensure that people were vaccinated to eliminate chances of getting coronavirus.
When compared to the total deaths recorded, the data shows that the percentage of deaths is also decreasing significantly. Therefore, there is a higher likelihood of reducing the risks of coronavirus through the use of vaccines. This is consistent with the previous findings and arguments from other experts involved in the coronavirus research. As more doses are administered across the population, the risks of death from coronavirus is also decreasing. The unvaccinated people are at a higher risks of succumbing to coronavirus compared to those who have completed the dose.
Vaccination Status

Deaths From COVID-19

Non-COVID-19 Deaths

COVID-19 Deaths (%) of All Deaths

All Deaths

53211

200,433

20.98

Unvaccinated

37311

65811

36.18

Deaths Within 3 Weeks of 1st Dose

3766

14311

20.83

Death After 3 Weeks of 1st Dose

7144

65788

9.80

Death After 3 Weeks of 2nd Dose

165

123943

0.13

Death After 3 Weeks of 2nd Dose

398

58994

0.67

Decision tree with probabilities
The following diagram (Figure1) shows the financial consequences and risk of vaccinated people getting COVID-19. In the beginning, vaccinated people can choose either to pay attention to self-protection or not spend too much time on it. Choosing to pay attention to self-protection means vaccinated people need to wear masks and keep a social distance from others. Additional protect...