Climate Change Threat to Coffee Production in Indonesia
Your task is to write a report for the Ministry of Agriculture identifying the most significant threat to future coffee production in your assigned country. After describing this threat, you will name and describe an existing solution. Your solution should relate to the topics we’ve covered in the different modules: coffee’s ecology and genetics, economics and marketing, sustainability, international development, or research and extension. Discussion of the solution must include description and analysis of one existing, coffee-related policy, project, or initiative that an agency, organization or business is implementing related to your solution. Note that your paper should engage with concepts and themes from at least two different modules. You shouldn’t have a paper that only talks about agroforestry or is all economics.
Audience
Each country has a Ministry of Agriculture--a department in charge of agricultural policies and regulations. For this assignment, imagine that you are working as a research consultant in your assigned country and that the Ministry is re-evaluating their policy and funding for the coffee sector. They have requested an assessment of threats to coffee within the country as well as ways to address these threats. The officials who will read this report are not coffee experts, and it is not safe to assume they know details about the cultivation, economic conditions, or social implications of growing coffee.
Recommended Structure
Your report should have two main sections: part one should focus on the threat and part two on the solution. Demonstrating how your solution addresses each of your points about the threat will ensure a strong, cohesive argument.
A recommended structure is:
Briefly provide background on coffee production in your assigned country before concluding your introductory paragraph with your thesis statement (see next section).
Decide on the 2 or 3 points the Ministry absolutely needs to know about the threat. Write 1-2 body paragraphs on each of these points. Support your points with evidence. This should include definitions of key terms, quotations from or paraphrasing of key sources, and an explanation of how these sources support your argument.
Provide a description of your chosen solution along with 2 or 3 points the Ministry should know about the solution before taking action. Write 1-2 body paragraphs on each of these points.
Your discussion of the solution should use one specific, coffee-related, project, policy, or initiative as evidence. You can discuss the project throughout the second half of your essay to explain your main points, or you can describe and analyze the project in a separate paragraph in part two of your essay.
Summarize your paper with a conclusion that includes a restatement of your thesis.
Thesis: As with all of your writing assignments in this course, this is a thesis-driven paper. You should update the draft thesis statement you have been working on in past assignments based on TA feedback and your continued research. Since there are two major sections, your paper will have a compound thesis of 2 to 3 sentences that answers both of the following questions:
1) What is the most significant threat to coffee production in your assigned country of origin?
2) What is an existing coffee-related solution that can alleviate or address this threat?
You will support your answer to each question with 2 to 3 points. This means your thesis will include two blueprints of reasons, one for the threat portion of your essay and one for your discussion of a solution. If you would like more guidance in developing a strong thesis statement, please come to a TA’s office hours. They will be happy to work with you. Some examples of sample thesis statements can be found in this document.
Part 1: Threat to production
In this section of your paper, you will describe the most significant threat to coffee production in your assigned country. A threat is a set of circumstances likely to reduce or eliminate coffee production, thereby threatening the livelihoods of coffee producers and their families. Please note, if you select climate change as a threat, you MUST identify a specific impact of climate change (i.e. changing temperatures, rainfall patterns, etc.) on coffee production systems. You cannot write about the broad impacts of climate change as your threat.
Examples of threats include:
Rising temperatures that are making a particular region less suitable for coffee production;
An increase in the occurrence of pests and diseases;
A current “C” price that does not cover the cost of production, contributing to poverty and food insecurity at the producer level; or
Government policies that underfund agricultural extension programs, leaving farmers ill-equipped to respond to outbreaks of coffee leaf rust.
You will present the 2 to 3 most important points to understand about this threat based on your understanding of the historical, biophysical, economic and/or sociocultural context of your assigned country. These points can explain how the threat became so significant, its impact on the country, or evidence for why it is more important than other threats to coffee production.
Part 2: Assessment of Solutions
In the second part of your paper, you will name and describe one existing solution that can address or alleviate your chosen threat. This solution should relate to the topics we have studied in the course: coffee ecology and genetics, economics and marketing, sustainability, international development, or coffee research and extension. To ensure that your solution is realistic, you must use an existing, coffee-related project, policy, or initiative as part of your evidence. This project can be a good example of your solution in action, or it can be a bad example that your solution could help fix . This project, policy, or initiative can come from a farmer cooperative, research institution, government agency, private company, or non-profit organization. It should take place on coffee farms or directly benefit coffee farmers. Examples of projects, policies, or initiatives include the following:
A development agency providing microloans to farmers in Ethiopia;
A private company in Mexico donating shade trees to mitigate the effects of climate change
The government of Brazil investing in a digital extension program for farmers; or
Vietnam implementing a new series of regulations that monitor water use and fertilizer leaching
If you choose a project not currently taking place in your assigned country, you must provide evidence for how it would work in your assigned country based on your country’s ecology, history, economy, and culture.
Climate Change Threat to Coffee Production in Indonesia
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Introduction
As the human population in various regions around the planet increase, the demand for coffee consumption increases and relatively becomes part of most people's lifestyles, given that coffee is a vital beverage in most communities on the planet. However, as climate change creates challenges, it is likely to be increasingly problematic to yield sufficient coffee to satisfy the growing demand. Indonesia is among the globe's primary coffee growers and a leading exporter. A Dutch who used to plant coffee trees within Batavia is behind the crop's introduction in the Asian country (Muzaifa & Rahmi, 2021). The production activity spread slowly to other regions in Indonesia, and the growing culture continued successfully. Initially, the state proved ideal for producing coffee due to the favorable climatic conditions. However, it is currently considered that climate change is increasingly likely to affect the entire agricultural production sector. This is mainly where climate turns drier and less foreseeable, severe weather conditions become intense and regular, and temperatures surpass the optimum level for agricultural development. The leading threat to coffee production in Indonesia is rising temperature coupled with inconsistent rainfall arising from climate change. It is projected to affect coffee yields and quality in future production. One effective solution to address the threat and prevent future impacts entails the Indonesian government's efforts to promote reforestation programs in areas where forest cover existed before to reduce climate change effects.
Part 1: Threat to Coffee Production
The primary threat facing convenient coffee production in Indonesia is the rising temperatures coupled with inconsistent rainfall patterns. These climatic modification elements are getting more attention as the nation becomes the globe's third greatest Greenhouse Gas emitter. Temperatures go up as adequate rainfall, essential for crop growth, becomes a nightmare whenever there is an interruption in the environment due to various activities that imply adverse outcomes (Schroth et al., 2015). The gases are the primary causes or sources of the current climatic changes in most parts of the planet. While the Asian country is rich with more natural resources, environmental deprivation is happening steadily. Unlike in already developed nations, Indonesia's emissions increasingly arise from cutting down trees for development and forest fires. Indonesia is almost adapting to these environmental burdens as a region unquestionably susceptible to alteration in climatic conditions. However, the state has been a favorite in the global limelight because of its eagerness and efforts to cut down the harmful emissions by about 26% (World Bank, 2010). According to the research, practices such as burning forests, deforestation, and peatland degradation placed Indonesia in countries falling victim to climate change. Gas releases from forest fires have a more significant influence than emissions originating from non-forestry activities. Three sectors, energy, agriculture, and waste, contribute to about 451 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) yearly in Indonesia. Towards the end of the 20th century, energy and forestry segments were the leading CO2 sources in the country. This significantly led to nearly 98% of the emissions caused in a year. Forestry's CO2 emissions primarily originated from biomass burning during forest and grassland conversion practices (Measey, 2010).
Climatic conditions are highly likely to change negatively in the Indonesian islands over the following years. Such a circumstance will imply adverse consequences for the environment, plants, human beings, and animals. Also, there are anticipations for change regarding the location and sizes of areas with desirable climatic conditions to produce or grow coffee, such as Arabica. Schroth et al. (2015) addressed the average yearly temperature and rainfall, including their estimated ranges in the recent zones producing the coffee. The projections also addressed expected changes in the next four decades. As the average temperature is expected to rise by nearly 1.7 C in every present production region, the anticipated alterations in rainfall vary between the south-based most minor islands like Flores, Java, and Bali, which are relatively drier, and the north-based hugest islands such as Sulawesi and Sumatra that are likely to be wetter with an approximation of averagely 10% (Schroth et al., 2015). Thus, general climatic variations are predicted to be pronounced within all the nation's coffee growth areas. Provided the environment is continually interrupted, these regions will achieve a new outcome in the future, most of them being unsuitable for coffee production. According to the research (Schroth et al., 2015), the Maxent model proposed a significant coffee suitability decrease in the growing zones by 2050 primarily because there will be a temperature rise, which is projected to trigger the climatically suitable belt to shift upwards. Due to such a circumstance, the convenient region within the existing growing areas would decline intensely from nearly 360,000 ha to about 57,000 ha in the following decades. Specifically, Aceh and Sumatra might lose approximately 90 percent of the area in the existing production region.
Indonesian areas like Bali and Sulawesi will be considerably impacted as much as possible, rendering them unproductive to grow any known coffee species in the Indonesian regions producing the crop for consumption and even export to other countries. According to the statistics, Flores Island will be relatively inconvenient for producing better coffee. However, the model reveals that Java would be the most suitable place to grow the plant. This is the coffee area where production is undoubtedly slightly less than in the climatically suitable region. The reducing climatic fitness of existing coffee growth areas regarding the movement from higher appropriateness, denoted by green, to lower appropriateness, denoted by yellow, is specifically evident for Flores and Sumatra. As it is also factual for Sulawesi's current coffee-growing areas, some north-based highland places that did not appear in the suitability areas classification under present conditions seemed convenient in warm future climatic conditions. This resulted in a general rise in the convenience area on the island. The Maxent model also revealed that the climatically appropriate place not within the existi...
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