Revolution in the Middle East. History Revolution Middle East
The paper (3,000 words) will be a study of themes investigated in any one of the texts.
This can be from either of the books: "understanding Iran" by William Polk, or "A revolution undone" by H.A. Hellyer, or it can be about the Arab Thermidor.
The paper will include:
1) Thesis statement.
2) Themes that support the thesis statement.
3) A bibliography with at least 5 sources (articles or books) in addition to two of the required textbooks. Encyclopedia-type entries (either books or internet sources) may be included, but will not count as one of your sources. You may of course use books, articles or other documentary sources on the internet, if the author can be identified. Follow the guidelines in Turabian’s A Manual for Writers.
4) A preliminary thesis statement (500 words) and annotated bibliography will be submitted after reading week, which will engage with one of the texts. The purpose is for you to define a theoretical (argumentative) approach to a specific topic. You will lose 10% of your paper grade if you neglect this assignment.
History Revolution Middle East
The course investigates contemporary issues in the Middle East as shaped by a series of revolutionary episodes.
Readings
William Polk, Understanding Iran.H.A. Hellyer, A Revolution Undone.
Questions
Sohrabi, Historicizing Revolutions
What was the dominant 'revolutionary paradigm' between 1789 and 1917?
What process is typical of a constitutional revolution? In other words, what do the revolutionaries seek to achieve?
How are social revolutions similar to constitutional revolutions? How do they differ?
Describe the stages of the two types of revolution. What is the key stage in a constitutional revolution?
What social groups or 'structure' is key in determining the outcome of a revolution?
What academic took a 'structuralist' approach to revolution? What does the term structure imply?
Who asserts the ideological or agency approach to revolution? Give an example of a revolutionary ideology.
How does Sohrabi distinguish his approach to ideology from earlier ones.
Read the article by Skocpol and decide which approach you think the more persuasive, structure or agency?
William Polk, Understanding Iran, Pages, 1-87.
1. What lesson does Polk draw from the wars between the Persians and the Greeks?
2. How was political leadership in the Sassanian Empire different from its predecessors?
3. How often did the Romans invade Iran? What finally brought peace?
4. What was the effect in Iran of Mongol and Timur invasions? What legacy of those invasions lingers in Iran to this day?
5. Explain the appeal of Shaikh Safii?
6. Why was Shiism adopted as the state religion under the Safavids? How did it fit Iranian traditions?
7. What was the significance of the naqqali?
8. What was the fundamental urban institution? Why?
9. What are the six themes that permeate Iranian history in the modern period?
10. What is the cautionary tale for Iranian rulers in the epic Shahnameh?
11. Describe Ibn Khaldun’s theory of state formation?
12. Outline Iranian social structure in the early modern period?
13. How does Polk account for the fall of the Safavids? Does it fit Ibn Khaldun’s theory?
14. What was the Qajar relationship with the religious establishment (ulama)?
15. How does Shiism differ from Sunnism? How was this difference manifested?
16. What characteristics defined the mujtahid and ayatollahs? Did these characteristics have an impact on politics?
17. What were the causes of the first Iranian jihad against Europeans?
18. What was the cause of the first Iranian manifestation of nationalism?
19. What groups resisted modernization in the 19th c.? Why?
20. What was the most effective weapon against the British tobacco concession? How did this alter the political constitution? Why was Nasir al-Din assassinated in 1896?
From Political Revolution through Social Revolution, Pages 87-127
1. What groups made up the revolutionary coalition of 1904? What was their tactics? Which were traditional and which modern?
2. What groups reacted against the revolutionary coalition? What were the weaknesses of the revolutionary parliament (majles-e shouray-e milli)?
3. Polk describes the events of 1906 a political revolution, do you agree?
4. International actors were significant in shaping the constitutional revolution of 1906. Identify these and assess how their involvement determined the course of the revolution.
5. What percentage of the income from oil was given to the Iranian nation? Who monopolized the rest?
6. What was the innovative measure of the majlis to reform finances? Why did the reform not succeed?
7. The intervention of counter-revolutionary forces in 1911 was carried out by what forces or groups?
8. After the First World War the Iranian constitutionalists (Sayyid Zia is mentioned) were defeated by Reza Shah. How does Polk account for the success of this coup?
9. Describe the ‘social revolution’ effected by Reza Shah’s reforms.
10. What groups were involved in Iranian politics between the end of the Second World War and 1953? How does Polk characterize politics in this period of relative pluarality?
11. The CIA/MI6 coup of 1953 was, like many Cold War conflicts, the result of a complete misreading or misunderstanding of Iranian politics. What were Iran’s motives for nationalizing AIOC?
12. List the US policies that endangered the regime of the Shah. Which policies of the Shah helped foment a revolutionary opposition?
13. Why did the ‘Plan Organization’ and the ‘White Revolution’ fail to create regime stability?
14. How does Polk describe the dynamics of state failure and revolution of 1978-1979?
15. The international context was again important in determining the course of the revolution. What was the US prime foreign policy consideration, according to Polk, in the years before the revolution?
16. As an American policy maker in government, Polk is an able observer of US foreign policy in the Middle East, what was his assessment of US policy decision-making?
The Revolutionary Regime, Pages, 128-167
1. What crippled the option of liberal democracy in Iran, according to Polk?
2. Who were the moderates in 1979? Why could they not direct the course of the revolution?
3. Using the language of the French Revolution, who were the leaders of the Jacobin, The Terror?
4. What powers were given to the Guide (marje-e taghlid)?
5. What were the motives or tactics of the komitehs when they seized the American Embassy?
6. What’s the significance of the term ‘second revolution’? What does it represent?
7. What were the inspirational models of the moderates, the uqqal, and why were they unable to create a liberal regime? Give examples, with names.
8. Give a similar assessment of the Mojahidin.
9. What was the primary cause of the Terror that seized Iran in 1981, according to Polk? How many died?
10. How did the Iran-Iraq war help cement the power of the revolutionary regime?
11. How did the revolutionary regime institutionalize its support among the population?
12. What factors have worked against democratization and liberalization since the death of Khomeini in 1989?
13. Why did the revolutionary generation of Iranians, desiring greater freedoms, elect Ahmadinejad instead of the moderate Rafsanjani in 2005?
14. The opposition to the hard liners in contemporary Iran is mostly made up of what groups?
The United States and Iran Today
1. According to Polk, who is to blame for the present nuclear crisis between Iran and the US?
Hellyer, A Revolution Undone
Preface
1. Hellyer sees the revolution as an on-going process. In which direction does he propose we should align in a confrontation that is often simply viewed as one between authoritarian deep state and the religious right wing?
Part One
1. What were the two main forces that confronted each other on 25 January? Identify the elements of each.
2. What is the nature of the social contract in the Arab World? How did the revolution change that contract?
3. What events or factors led to mass support for the protesters after 25 January 2011?
4. Discuss the positive and negative aspects of Facebook in the revolution?
5. What organizations gave the revolutionaries the muscle to resist state violence.
6. As Hellyer says, the revolutionaries only took shape as a distinct group after February 11, 2011. Why were they the weakest of the political groups?
7. The organizational coherence of the MB has been over-stated. What were the major divisions within the organization? How did these divisions shape their engagement in some of the crucial events of the revolution?
8. Outline Hellyer’s critique of the policy decisions of the MB. Why did its decision to evolve from a movement to a political party seal its fate?
9. In 2011 the military appeared on the side of the people and the revolutionaries against Mubarak. Why did the military (SCAF) not pursue a reformist agenda alongside the revolutionaries?
10. The MB similarly excluded the revolutionaries. Why was Islamist culture anti-revolutionary?
11. Explain the political dynamic that resulted in two conservative candidates – old regime and MB – appearing on the ticket of the first revolutionary elections for the presidency.
12. Who was behind and what was the effect of the violent clashes at Maspero, Muhammad Mahmoud, and with the Ultras at the football match in Port Said?
Part Two
1. Draw a distinction between Islamists and conservative Muslims. Are their politics different?
2. What are the two historic positions of Muslims in relation to political power? How does Hellyer characterize the position of the majority of Muslim scholars (‘ulama’)?
3. Most Egyptians are religious. Are most in favour of a theocratic state? What kind of government or politics do Egyptians want?
4. What is the most likely explanation for the inept performance of the Muslim Brotherhood on the public stage?
5. About what percentage of the electorate voted for Mursi? Did this have an impact on Mursi’s policies?
6. What is Hellyer’s criticism of Western media coverage of the Mursi government?
7. What fault does he find with the secular/liberal/revolutionary opposition to Mursi?
8. Much of the debate on the Egyptian revolution is who to blame for its failure to carry through the democratic experiment – revolutionaries, Muslim Brotherhood, or remnants of the old regime. Which is to blame?
9. Which members of the international community worked to bring about a consensus between Mursi and the opposition in 2013? What part did the USA play?
10. Who initiated Tamarod? Who sustained, organized, and mobilized its protests?
11. Were the events of 3 July a coup or a revolution? Why was the answer to this question crucial?
12. Hellyer speaks of political narratives and zero-sum calculations. Why was there so little room for the sort of compromise he felt was needed realize revolutionary ambitions. Why was the ‘plausible alternative’ he spoke of in the introduction – an alternative to the corrupt old regime and the religious right – so difficult to formulate?
Part 3
1. What qualities did Sisi possess to mobilize a base of support? How did the war on terror narrative serve that end?
2. Explain the process whereby the expected move for new presidential and parliamentary elections was replaced by the war on terror? Who was responsible for this shift?
3. Who was responsible for failing to act on the proposed Baradei agreement in August 2013, shortly before the Rab’a mass killing?
4. Outline the assessment by observers of the Rab’a incident.
5. Based on the reports pages 167-8 tally protestor and police deaths in demonstrations between 2011 and 2013. What proportion of these were revolutionary protestors against Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Can you identify when the revolutionaries and Muslim Brotherhood diverged in the revolutionary course of events?
6. Describe Sisi’s character and how this might account for his style of politics.
7. Describe the Sisi regime, its approach to governance and dissent, and what this bodes for the revolutionary ambitions of 2011?
8. Account for the rise of the radical Islamists in the Sinai (often described as a branch of ISIS or ISIL). Why did they turn to insurgency after the fall of Mursi? In other words, how did those events increase the currency of the militant as opposed to gradualist version of Islamism?
9. What is Hellyer’s assessment of Egypt’s future in light of these events?
Revolution in the Middle East
Author`s Name
Institutional Affiliation
Revolution in the Middle East
The Revolution in Egypt had a difficulty interphase leading to various problems in the country, which include foreign direct investments. It caused a deficit in the budget of the country, increasing debt rate, and poor standards of living. Besides, the budget deficit, the government spent a lot of money due to the political unrest of the entire country. The country faced a low shortage of goods and services from international trade, as the prices increased with political instability nature in the country (Hellyer, 2011). It led to a limited supply of food and fuel in the country that asserts pressure on the domestic costs of products in 2011. This research paper has emphasized the deteriorating political as well as economic states of the country. The article also focuses on the changing sociological environment of the entire nation. The influence the revolution act influenced the nearby countries such as Ethiopia and North Sudan part. Lastly, the research will focus on the remedy measures and solutions that can overcome the tense state of the country.
The book “Revolution Undone” has different themes that contribute to the poor living conditions of people in Egypt. Democracy and the parliamentary election is one of the topics that affected Egyptians negatively. In 2010, the election had a controversial influence, as it ended in legitimacy uproar of people with allegations of fraud and lack of transparency in the voting system. According to Hellyer, the defective political process with a combination of the high level of corruption caused the collapse of the ruling government, leading political instability in the whole country. The problem of a political crisis fueled demonstrations and protests on the need to reform the political system and social inequality to the real democratic process of the country. The country had conflicts between the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom Organization and Justice Party, the country that had a liability of drafting a new constitution for the country. Besides, the parliament had some arguments with the military that worsened the conflict in the nation.
The Muslim Brotherhood`s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) were the primary cause of the conflicts in the country (Lynch, 2014). FJP had a crucial role in shaping the future political system in the state. The parliament empowers the president of the government to enjoy confined powers as well as the concentrated activities. The executive power is in the abilities of the prime minister who should have a strong political party to enhance the sharing of the authorities. However, the revolution process leads to change in those powers, and it may not again occur in future. Egypt has adopted a political system called Albarlamasa that enhance the equal sharing of the authorities to promote a quality-based political organization. Therefore, the duty of the president comes from the constitution according to the existing political system in the country.
The political level on the governance revolution post is another theme evident in Egypt. In the transition democracy from the authoritarian era, they must undergo significant reforms in the public administration sectors. In the shifting procedure, the state also suffers some of the significant shifts. Appropriate governance includes a variety of factors such as transparency, accountability, equitable, effective, efficient, and participatory of the subjects. Above all the duties, it has to follow the rule of law in the implementation of its services. At all levels, an excellent governing system needs an ethical framework to work along with the judicial system to help in making decisions that are favorable to the subjects depending on the rules and regulations. Hellyer shows that the governance system of Egypt declined due to reflection of the need for reforms in the institutional organizations. Hellyer supported democracy form of government that allows people to take part in the making of decisions. It is an effective form of ruling, as it promotes equality in the country. The book of the Revolution Undone shows the benefits of democracy in enhancing national unity and balance in the resource distribution process.
Hellyer also identifies socioeconomic issues and governance as another relevant theme in the Egyptian Revolution. The Egyptian revolution process had a challenging face as it led to reduced foreign direct investment, increase in the debt rate, high budget deficit, high rate of unemployment, and increased poverty levels in people. It led to slow economic growth in the yearly budget of 2010/11 (WINEGAR, 2016). The revolution activities led to the destruction of the tourism trade in the country, which sent tourist away, leading little revenue generation. Tension destabilized the security plan of visitors leading to a decline in the level of tourists in wildlife areas. It incurred a colossal loss of money for about 2 million US Dollars from tourism activities because of the political unrest.
In the book of Revolution Undone, the Revolution of the Egyptians affected foreign exchange services, as it dropped drastically. The decline of foreign exchange services was due to the dramatic activities of the Egyptians. The tourism revenues dropped up to the rate of 47.5 per cent in the next six months of the second year as compared with the first year (Ketchley, 2017). The book also shows that the foreign investment of Egypt dropped maximally in the revolution process from 6.8 to two United States Billion Dollars on the budgetary year of 2010/11. It leads to revenue deficit, as the country lacked trade balance to compete with its competitor countries. It leads to low-profit maximization to the state that leads to a financial crisis in many business sectors of the country. The book of Revolution Undone shows that this process forced the government to borrow more funds from financial institutions and bonds to carry out governmental duties. It led to a tremendous amount of loan the country owed the treasury bills and bonds amounting for a total 119 billion. The government also seek financial assistance from the private sectors to get credit facilities.
Furthermore, the country had a less number of the private investments institutions; both domestic and foreign investors because of political instability and insecurity issues which distort the vision of the military as well as that of the federal government. Political instability dismantled some organizations and discipline as the government had no power to oversee the ongoing duties in the various necessary business. It led the country to suffer financial problems due to high dependent loan facilities from outside the company. Political instability is a roadmap that has declined many investments companies in the states. It resulted in the disruption of trading activities in the country; hence, the investments companies lacked a platform where they can invest their money. Besides, the investment firms incurred huge losses, as the companies could not afford to settle their loan finances because of damage in the business activities.
The Revolution Undone book acts as an indicator of debt crisis the country has on global levels such as the World Bank. The financial crisis left the country with an option than just borrowing funds to sustain governmental programs. Moreover, the debt crisis in this book acted as an indicator of debt services of the imports and the exports. The Hellyer recorded various debt of the country owes to other foreign countries such as North and Central Europe and the United States. It slowed down the economic growth of the country because of the lower share of the capital formulation.
The other crucial theme that Hellyer focused on is marinating the balance of payments and the evaluation of external trade. The country considers two elements to the entire deficit. The decline in the current account of the company came from the fall in trade activities that caused a cut of revenue generation to the national government. Trade deficit reduced with a decrease in the income levels, reflecting a fall in the business activity of the country (Ayeb & Bush, 2019). Unemployment is another perspective that affects several people from Egypt. For the past 20 years, Hellyer shows that Egypt has an unemployed population of 8 to 12 per cent. However, the origin of economic reform in 2000 started decreasing stably. Furthermore, the financial crisis led to an increase in the number of employed people in Egypt. People feared for their well-being, and therefore, they ran a high level of insecurity that is harmful to the people. It leads to a reduction in the production of products that do not meet customers in the market. An increase in the number of unemployed people pr...
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