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Instructions
Assignment 4.1
Objective: Understand and explain the principles of the quantitative and qualitative research process, and how it could be effectively used in program evaluation
Program Outcome: Create a community of students committed to serving the public interest.
Core Competency: To participate in and contribute to the public policy process.
Based on your reading, consider the case below. Chapter 6 provides SSRD discussions; Chapter 9 discusses threats to internal validity, and Chapter 11 discusses reliability issues).
Report on the case using guidance from box 6.2, page 187; the report is a single system evaluation study. The report needs to include a line graph that reports the data (you will need to use Excel to construct the line graph). In the accompanying paper, make sure to report on any efforts you would make to improve or check the reliability of the data you obtain. Previous students have suggested this link to help with Excel:
Construct Time series graph using Excel
https://www(dot)youtube(dot)com/watch?v=W56_YiX6OfM
When constructing your graph, make sure to label the vertical and horizontal data properly.
Evidenced based research to support the report is required.
Reports, citations, and references should be in APA format. Graphs or charts are added to the report and titled properly. Consult the APA manual or use https://owl(dot)english(dot)purdue(dot)edu/owl/resource/560/01/ as help in creating your report. You should only submit one paper with the report and graphs properly included.
National Speed Limit Case Analysis
In 1974, the United States instituted a national speed limit of 55 miles per hour (mph), a move that generated a great deal of controversy. Proponents of the lower speed limit managed to avoid repeal of this national speed limit for over two decades by effectively arguing that driving at 55 mph significantly reduced the number of traffic fatalities on U.S. highways. The argument was based on the fact that the total number of traffic fatalities dropped from 55,511 in 1973 to only 46,402 in 1974. People have questioned the validity of this argument that the reduction in fatalities was due to the institution of the 55 mph speed limit. You will also be include looking at the impact of the 55mph speed limit repeal in 1996 (although it took several years for the repeal to be implemented nation-wide). There is more information available on this as shown below.
Since the change to a 55 mph speed limit occurred a number of years ago, you can use archival data in your study. The U. S. government routinely makes available a wide variety of data on the U.S. population. Most public and private libraries either own or would be able to get the national or state statistics you need.
Table 1: Annual Traffic Fatalities on U.S. Highways
Year Number of fatalities
1966 53,041
1967 52,924
1968 55,200
1969 55,791
1970 54,633
1971 52,660
1972 56,278
1973 55,511
1974 46,402
1975 45,853
1976 47,038
1977 49,510
1978 50,226
Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States, annual.
Tables 2-4 (removal of the intervention)--We also have data to assess fatalities after removal of the intervention!
Year (Column 1); Fatal Crashes (Column 2); Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (Column 3); Fatalities per 100,000 Population (Column 4)
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
1994 34,439 1.18 11.59
1995 32,539 1.15 11.06
1996 30,056 1.08 10.28
1997 30,202 1.1 10.4
1998 31,006 1.14 10.76
1999 29,867 1.1 10.42
2000 30,296 1.11 10.67
2001 30,862 1.15 11.05
2002 34,172 1.26 12.31
2003 37,435 1.36 13.7
2004 38,648 1.42 14.31
2005 39,252 1.46 14.72
2006 38,444 1.44 14.63
2007 38,477 1.48 14.78
2008 38,491 1.51 14.95
2009 37,862 1.51 14.81
2010 37,526 1.53 14.87
2011 37,140 1.55 15.3
2012 37,107 1.58 15.36
2013 37,324 1.65 15.69
2014 37,494 1.69 15.86
2015 37,241 1.73 15.91
2016 36,254 1.7 15.64
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Federal Analysis Reporting System *FARS) Encyclopedia
Your professional report should include:
1. Background on the setting and goals of the intervention and the removal of the intervention.
2. The purpose of the evaluation.
3. Describe the type of single system design used including the intervention.
4. Compare and contrast the outcomes in columns 2-4. Why use three outcome measures?
5. Analyze the inferences from the data. What is one important conclusion that can be safely made given the data? What is one important conclusion that
cannot be made based on the data?
6. What is the most significant threat to internal validity? Does the threat to internal validity change the conclusions we reach based on the empirical results?
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Background on the Setting and Goals of the Intervention and the Removal of the Intervention
As for the energy crisis let in by the 1973 oil crisis, auto speed limits were set to 55mph the same year 1974 in the United States. The main objectives of this intervention were as follows: reduction of fuel losses and the improvement of traffic safety, which would be achieved through a reduction of the number of traffic accidents. Those in support of the lower speed limit claimed that driving on the U. S highways would be less deadly if performed at a speed of 55 mph This proposition was supported by some empirical evidence that pointed to a drastic reduction in traffic fatalities in 1974 from 1973. Nevertheless, controversies still surrounded the national speed limit of 55 mph which remained in force until the years when the policy was repealed in 1995 while the enforceability of the repeal also differed by state in the subsequent years. This repealed measure gave the ability to set speed limits in states and subsequently there were many speed limits across the United States including and often over the 55-mph speed limit (Schneider, 2020).
Purpose of the Evaluation
The evaluation of this research will be done to compare the number of killed people when the 55-mph speed limit was in force and after the elimination of speed limit. The evaluation is meant to identify possible relationship between the speeds that were set with the reduction in on the one hand the number of fatalities during the period the speed limit was enforced and on the other hand to identify post-repeal trends in traffic fatalities.
Type of Single System Design Used
Evaluating this study design uses a quasi-experimental interrupted time series. This design entails making comparisons of rate differences before, during and after intervention of the 55-mph speed limit can be obtained from the findings in order to infer on change in trends. The key periods of interest are:
* Pre-intervention period (1966-1973): Traffic fatality data before the implementation of the 55 mph speed limit.
* Intervention period (1974-1994): Traffic fatality data during the period when the 55 mph speed limit was in effect.
* Post-inter...
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