Potential Impact of China-Taiwan Conflict on United States Indo-Pacific Command

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government.

Table of Contents

Disclaimer: 2

Preface. 5

Abstract 5

1. Introduction. 6

2. Background and Significance. 8

2.1. The China-Taiwan Conflict 8

2.1.1. Root Causes of the Conflict 8

2.1.2. Current Status. 10

2.1.3. Possible key issues that might escalate the conflict 11

2.2. Significance to USINDOPACOM... 13

3. Literature Review.. 15

3.1. Background. 15

3.2. Causes of the Vietnam War. 16

3.3. Ways in Which US Military Got Involved in the War. 18

4. Analysis and Discussion of Findings. 21

4.1. Comparing Vietnam War and China-Taiwan Conflict 21

4.1.1. Communism versus Great Power Competition. 21

4.1.2. Cost versus Value of Interest 22

4.1.3. Weak South Vietnamese Government versus Relatively Strong Taiwanese Government 24

4.1.4. Military Arms/Training. 25

4.1.5. Public Support 26

4.2 Impact on the USINDOPACOM... 27

5. Recommendations. 29

5.1. Responsible Congressional Oversight 29

5.2. Integrated Deterrence. 29

5.3. Maintain Military Superiority. 30

5.4. Utilize the Power of Allies. 30

6. Conclusion. 31

7.0 Endnotes. 31

Preface

One thing that I am fascinated with in geopolitics is the relationship the US has with other nations and its impact on the country's military. As a global power, the US has a military presence in most regions of the world. I find it interesting how the relationship between the US and other nations impacts US military operations, particularly those stationed outside the US. When the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, alongside a delegation, visited Taiwan in August 2022, I knew it was a significant moment in the history of the relationship between the two countries as well as in the US-China conflict.

With the knowledge of the One China policy and the trade wars between China and the US, I inferred that Pelosi's visit would be a turning point in the US approach to the island. With basic research on the issue, it became clear that the US was shifting from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. The ensuing tensions between Taiwan and China made me wonder, what would be the impact on the US military if the conflict escalates? The case of Vietnam War, where the US sought to protect South Vietnam, came to mind, and I thought it would offer a great comparison with valuable lessons for the US military. In essence, I wanted to find out what happened in Vietnam and how it compares to the China-Taiwan conflict and, in the process, draw valuable insights for the US military.

Abstract

The current US administration's policy towards Taiwan is characterized by strategic clarity as opposed to strategic ambiguity employed before. From former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to President Biden's stance on defending Taiwan if China invades, it is clear that the US considers Taiwan integral to its Indo-Pacific strategy. With China having the goal of eventually "reuniting" with Taiwan, the current policy of the US toward Taiwan is brewing a conflict that could escalate to a war. This implies that the operations of the US military, and particularly USINDOPACOM, will be significantly impacted. US military leaders have predicted that a war with China will be inevitable in the near future. This paper uses an explorative case study framework to compare the current China-Taiwan conflict to the Vietnam War. It draws important insights that can guide the operations of USINDOPACOM in Taiwan. This research finds that USINDOPACOM must be prepared to train Taiwan's military, work with allies, and map out war scenarios. Key recommendations proposed include responsible congressional oversight, integrated deterrence, military superiority, and maintaining relationships with allies.

1. Introduction

One of the key events in the current geopolitical arena is the China-Taiwan conflict, with the two countries seeking diverging objectives. While China is pursuing reunification with Taiwan, the latter, under the leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen, aims to be independent of the former. With Taiwan being a key partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific region, the escalation of conflict could have major implications for the USINDOPACOM. This is primarily because US President Joe Biden has reiterated the continued effort of the US to support its allies in the region, including Taiwan. The rapid expansion of China's military capabilities has prompted major US military leaders to predict an invasion of Taiwan by China in the near future. In essence, the major question that arises is what impact the current conflict between China and Taiwan could have on the US military and, specifically, USINDOPACOM. This paper will seek to determine the implications of the China-Taiwan conflict on the combatant command responsible for the Indo-Pacific region.[Ayu Agnia and Joko Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty," International Journal of Social Science and Human Research 5, no. 6 (2022): 2282-2286, doi: 10.47191/ijsshr/v5-i6-37] [Agnia and Setiyono, "United States Intervention in the China - Taiwan Conflict over Taiwan Territorial Sovereignty"] [Davidson, Helen. US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions. February 2, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/us-general-gut-feeling-war-china-sparks-alarm-predictions]

This paper hypothesizes that an escalation of the conflict between Taiwan and China could intensify the deployment of US military personnel in the country and the region and eventually result in the loss of military assets in case of a full-blown war. As an ally of Taiwan, the US is committed to protecting the country against efforts that can threaten its economic, social, and security efforts. NOTEREF _Ref144377915 \f \h \* MERGEFORMAT Therefore, China's actions that can disrupt the economy and peace of Taiwan will prompt a reaction from the US, and military action by the US could result in the loss of major military assets, as was the case with Vietnam. With critics discouraging the involvement of the US in the China-Taiwan conflict, there is a slim chance the US may watch as the conflict unfolds. This can strengthen China's position in the Southeast Pacific while making the USINDOPACOM vulnerable to attacks from China.[US Department of State, US Relations with Taiwan. May 28, 2022. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/] [Collins, Joseph. "Lessons and Echoes from the War in Vietnam." Small Wars Journals 56, no. 1 (2018)] [BIBLIOGRAPHY \l 1033 John Tirpak, Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say, March 1, 2023, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/escalation-china-war-taiwan-strait/]

This paper will utilize an explanatory case study framework to compare the current China-Taiwan conflict with the Vietnam War, which preceded the conflict between North and South Vietnam and significantly impacted the US military. The framework for the paper will involve an in-depth analysis of the events leading up to the Vietnam War and how the conflict between North and South Vietnam impacted the operations of the US military. A key similarity between China-Taiwan conflict and Northern Vietnam-Southern Vietnam conflict call for comparison of the two conflicts to draw valuable insights. In the Vietnam War, the US sought to prevent the expansion of Communism in Southeast Asia and it was guided by the Domino theory, which states that one country falling to Communism would lead to communist insurgencies in the bordering countries. Similarly, in the current China-Taiwan conflict, the US is seeking to counter the growing influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, if China invades Taiwan, the US involvement in the war is inevitable given that President Biden has vowed to defend the island. Just like in Vietnam, US military would be involved in the war to protect US interests in the region if China invades Taiwan. By examining the causes of the Vietnam War and the nature of the involvement of the US military, the researcher will develop insights that will inform how the current China-Taiwan conflict might impact the operations of the USINDOPACOM.[Mach, Jacob. "Before Vietnam: Understanding the Initial Stages of US Involvement in Southeast." Channels: Where Disciplines Meet 3, no. 1 (2018)] [The White House. 2022. Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf. (accessed September 13, 2023)] [Chin, Josh. China and Taiwan Relations Explained: What’s Behind the Divide. May 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-taiwan-relations-tensions-explained-11653322751]

2. Background and Significance

2.1. The China-Taiwan Conflict

The China-Taiwan conflict is one of the major international conflicts present in the world today. As a vibrant democracy in the largely communist Asian region, Taiwan is vital to the interests of the United States, not only in the Southeast Asian region but also in the world. As informed by Lin, losing a war to China could reduce US power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region, which would further weaken US partnerships and alliances. In essence, it is not in the interests of the US to let the conflict between China and Taiwan escalate, and in the event that the tension does escalate to war, the US must be on the winning side. The sections below highlight the root causes of the conflict, its current status, and possible issues that might escalate the conflict.[Lin, Bonny. US Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan: Responses to a Chinese Attack on Taiwan and Potential US Taiwan Policy Changes. February 18, 2021. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1123208.pdf (accessed September 6, 2023)]

2.1.1. Root Causes of the Conflict

Although conflicts between China and Taiwan have existed since the 1949 collapse of the Republic of China government, renewed Chinese efforts to “reunite” with Taiwan are a key cause of the current tension. China's leader, Mr. Xi Jinping, seeks to make China a great power and considers control of Taiwan a task that should not be passed down from one generation to another. As pointed out by Bolton and Zitelman, since it was founded in 1949, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has had the uncompromisable objective of taking Taiwan under its control. While China's stance towards Taiwan was largely rhetorical until the 2000s, the development of the country's economic and military power in the recent past has made the threat real. The ascension to power of Xi in 2012 resulted in a radical change in the relations among the US, Taiwan, and China. Although the US previously focused on deterring Taiwan's impudence, it shifted its focus to deterring China's aggression. As pointed out by Bolton and Zitelman, since 2012, there has been a significant rise in PRC Han Nationalism, with Xi using nationalism to boost the domestic stability of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Therefore, the continued efforts of the Chinese leadership to seek “reunification” with Taiwan is a