Reduction in CO2 Emissions by Substituting the UK Domestic Flights by Train within 10 years

PHYSICAL CHANGE:
REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS BY SUBSTITUTING THE UK DOMESTIC FLIGHTS BY TRAIN WITHIN 10 YEARS
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January 12, 2022
PHYSICAL CHANGE: REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS BY SUBSTITUTING THE UK DOMESTIC FLIGHTS BY TRAIN WITHIN 10 YEARS
I. INTRODUCTION
A noticeable and common trend among governmental bodies is environmental sustainability. Compared to earlier times, ecological sustainability and development that adhere to its principles are becoming a pressing schedule (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 25). It may be noticed that several of these initiatives are focused on the air transport industry. Commercial aviation is responsible for approximately 14% of transportation-induced greenhouse gases at the European level (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 25).
Air travel has its benefits. It is one of the fastest modes of travel. However, it is not without its downsides. Among all other contemporary modes of transportation, air transportation has the highest climate impact. Comparing long-haul and short-haul flights, it is the latter that produces the highest emissions per passenger. Fortunately, these short-haul flights are most easily replaceable by land-based transportation modes (Baumeister, 2019, p. 1).
The initiative of replacing airline travel, specifically domestic or short-haul trips, with land-based transportation has been called a "modal shift." This "modal shift" seeks to achieve more environmentally friendly transportation methods such as high-speed rail (HSR), buses, coaches, and rail (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 25).
The issue of sustainability in the air transport industry is pushing legislative bodies toward ending short to medium-haul domestic flights and replacing them with alternative modes of transportation. The expansion of rail corridors and development in technologies in non-air transit, resulting in the overall increase in performance, has strengthened these attempts at modal shifts (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 37).
In present contexts, in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, different European legislative bodies have taken up the opportunity to lay down policies with the environmental reformation of the transportation industry as an end in mind. For example, French lawmakers ultimately banned short-haul domestic flights with train alternatives in a recently concluded bailout agreement with Air France. The Austrian government's state aid package required its recipient to halve domestic flight carbon emissions by 2030, specifically by rescinding domestic flight routes already served by a high-speed rail connection (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 26).
This essay seeks to contribute threefold to the discussion on modal shifts by analyzing: (1) effectivity, whether the modal shift will indeed bring about a significant reduction in emissions in the UK over ten years; (2) potential stockholder impact; and (3) the practicability of the modal shift.
II. EFFECTIVITY
There is an undeniable amount of literature on the effectiveness of a modal shift about the positive impact on economic sustainability.
In 2019, the transportation sector was the second-largest producer of CO2 emissions globally, with 24% of total emissions. Transportation was stated to have become the fastest-growing cause of greenhouse gas emissions (Baumeister, 2019, p. 3).
The transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions grew by 68% between 1990 and 2015. In this context, it is air transportation with the highest growth rates. Between 1990 and 2015, aviation's carbon dioxide emissions doubled and grew by 105%. Annually, the aviation sector is growing at about 6%, which is considered "very fast" (Baumeister, 2019, p. 3).
Different factors contribute to the conclusion that short-haul flights produce higher carbon dioxide emissions per ton kilometer. Compared to medium and long-haul flights, short-haul flights have lower total emissions, but factors such as energy-intense take-off and climb phases distributed over shorter flight routes and lower loads and smaller amounts of cargo contribute to a much higher ratio between emission and distance traveled. (Baumeister, 2019, p. 4)
A study found that about 63 million offered airline seats could be replaceable with alternative trips, causing a maximum increase in passenger travel time equal 20%. Discontinuing these routes estimated a reduction of aviation carbon dioxide emission by 4.72% or approximately 3.13 million tons per year. These impacts were concentrated in domestic ways where the modal shift was feasible (Avogadro et al., 2021, p. 37).
In another study, the train achieved the lowest emissions per distance traveled, followed by coach, then car, and then aircraft. The study concluded that one flight's per-passenger carbon dioxide emissions equaled 17.7 trips by train (Baumeister, 2019, p. 4). In research, statistical analysis was implemented to compare the environmental impact of carbon dioxide emissions between the situation where regular aircraft routes were used and another situation where those routes were replaced with trans. In a single year, a total of 41,607.350 t carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in savings were noted, or a 0.37% emission reduction potential (Baumeister, 2019, p. 12).
The modal shift was documented to have beneficial effects on environmental sustainability and in terms of local air pollution, climate change impact, and noise pollution, with high-speed rail and other train systems dominating the beneficial aspect and reducing overall contribution to pollution (Givoni, 2007, p. 223; Prussi and Lonza, 2018, p. 7).
III. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
Commuters
It is expected that there may both be objections and affirmations from the commuting public in response to a modal shift, even though gradual. Perhaps the leading factor to a public outcry against the modal shift is the increase in travel time in routes where rail corridors are not well-developed or well-routed (Baumeister and Leung, 2020, p. 3).
Affirmations may be expected from non-governmental organizations or civic groups inclined towards environmentally-friendly reform, possibly lauding the modal shift for its noted effects in favor of the environment. 
Transportation companies
While high-speed rail and train transportation carry significant advantages in travel time and environmental impact, the necessary infrastructure requires allocating time, labor, and resources. Not only will more rail corridors have to be developed and planned out, but they must also be done so that the option of transportation by train is competitive and enticing to the commuting public. Additional carriers would also have to be introduced to accommodate the increased load of passengers (Baumeister and Leung, 2020, p. 8).
The objection is expected from aviation transportation companies since they will be experiencing a significant loss in earning capacity with closing domestic short-haul flights. Thus, policymakers must offer proper accommodations to aviation companies, including tax incentives, government support, and subsidy programs.
One study suggested a partnership between both train and aviation companies...