On picking winners in the future of rock and roll

There are a number of key and central realities in the business of popular music. One is that there is no natural connection between what\'s good and what sells. The stories of mediocre talents that became successful are legion and, conversely, the stories of great talents that never seem to find popular success are equally common. Bob Dylan never sold as well as the Monkees and The Grateful Dead had only one Number One record in the entirety of their career. Another reality is that it is difficult to spot what will and what will not become popular. When Brian Epstein attempted to get the Beatles signed to a recording contract, he was turned down by every major label in England including Decca, Columbia, HMV, and EMI. Finally, George Martin, who had never produced a pop band, agreed to sign them to Parlophone, an EMI subsidiary. Within a year and a half, the Beatles had three Number One hits and placed eight songs in England\'s Top Twenty. After the Beatles had dominated the British charts for over a year, the American arm of EMI, Capitol Records, still wouldn\'t release any Beatles\' singles or their first album in the U.S. Capitol representatives told George Martin that he simply \"didn\'t understand the American market.\" Finally, Capitol released \"I Want To Hold Your Hand\" in January of 1964 and within a month it held the Number One spot on the U. S. charts. Two months later, the Beatles held all of the top five chart positions simultaneously. When Bob Dylan was signed to Columbia by John Hammond, he was known as \"Hammond\'s Folly\" at the label. Columbia had so little faith in Dylan\'s ability to succeed that Hammond paid for the first recording session out of his own pocket. MTV initially refused to air Michael Jackson\'s \"Billie Jean\" and was finally forced to air it by Jackson\'s record label. MTV believed that their demographic simply wouldn\'t respond to videos made by black artists. \"Billie Jean\" became the first video made by a black artist to go into heavy rotation on MTV and became the biggest hit of the year. YOUR ASSIGNMENT: Artists become eligible for induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame 25 years after the release of their first record. Criteria include \"the influence and significance of the artist\'s contributions to the development and perpetuation of rock and roll.\" Obviously, some artists become inductees because they are enormously popular. Others are inducted in recognition of the importance of their contributions outside of their popularity. And, for some, it is both. Your assignment is to select four contemporary artists relatively new to the world of popular success – or about to break into the realm of popular success – that you believe will be inductees to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 25 or so years. You need to offer both your predictions and a critical defense of why you believe your predictions are reasonable. This assignment comes from an informal survey that I conducted for many years when INART 115 was taught in a classroom. I would ask the class to identify five of their favorite current recording artists that they believed would still be popular in five years. Around 80% of the artists who were selected had usually vanished from the charts by the next year. In this assignment, your critical judgment and reasoning are more important than your picks…only time will tell if you are good at picking winners. Your picks may be defended because you believe that their popularity will continue and you need to explain why you hold such an opinion. Your picks may also come from a belief in the importance of their contributions and, again, you need to critically defend your position. Think of yourself as a Rolling Stone or Spin critic looking into the crystal ball and trying to see the future. Jon Landau wrote a famous essay in Boston\'s Real Paper in 1974 that heralded the coming of Bruce Springsteen this way: \"Last Thursday, at the Harvard Square theatre, I saw my rock and roll past flash before my eyes. And I saw something else: I saw rock and roll future and its name is Bruce Springsteen. And on a night when I needed to feel young, he made me feel like I was hearing music for the very first time.\" He then went on to explain in detail why he believed Bruce Springsteen was \"rock and roll future.\" He was, of course, right and in the years since that essay he has become Bruce\'s manager and one of the most powerful men in the music business. Remember, the assignment is to select artists that are \"contemporary artists relatively new to the world of popular success – or about to break into the realm of popular success.\" U2, Tom Petty, Madonna, and Red Hot Chili Peppers don\'t fit into the category of \"artists relatively new to the world of popular success.\" More to the point would be artists like Dr. Dog, MGMT, M.I.A., Amy Winehouse, Lady Gaga, M. Ward, Taylor Swift, T-Pain, Vampire Weekend, Lily Allen, Li\'l Wayne, Katy Perry, Santigold, Keri Hilson, Deerhunter, Natasha Bedingfield, Grizzly Bear, and so on. I suppose that one could argue that few if any contemporary artists are bound for rock and roll glory, although I personally doubt if that\'s the case. If you would opt to take the position that no contemporary artists are likely to be around long enough to be remembered in 25 years or if none are making contributions worthy of induction, make sure you give a clearly supported critical explanation of why you hold such beliefs. Try to see \"rock and roll future\" today like Jon Landau did back in 1974.