Trade and Finance: Comprehensive Free Trade Deal with India
The UK government has stated that it“… has started negotiations for a trade agreement with the countries listedbelow.US: There is no current trade agreement between the UK and the US.Negotiations started in May 2020 but there have been no negotiations sinceOctober 2020. An agreement is not expected soon.India: There is no current trade agreement between the UK and India.Negotiations started on 17 January 2022. The Government had hoped that
these negotiations would be completed by October 2022 but this deadline hasbeen missed.”Source: Webb, D (2023) Progress on UK free trade agreement negotiations House of Commons Library
Use a combination of economic theory and data on recent export and importsto answer one of the following questions.
(1) Explain which industries in the UK are likely to be the mainbeneficiaries and losers from the signing of a comprehensive free tradedeal with the US. (80% Marks)Explain if it’s likely, or not, that this comprehensive free trade deal willlead to a long-run increase in the UKs GDP per capita. (20% Marks) OR
(2) Explain which industries in the UK are likely be the main beneficiariesand losers from the signing of a comprehensive free trade deal withIndia. (80% Marks)Explain if it’s likely, or not, that this comprehensive free trade deal willlead to a long-run increase in the UKs GDP per capita. (20% Marks)Assume that the comprehensive free trade deal includes the followingcharacteristics.
• The deal includes substantial reductions of tariffs and other charges onexported and imported goods.
• Neither Government has agreed to any regulatory equivalenceresulting in reduced standards or lower consumer protection.
• There is improved mutual recognition of qualifications and financialservices regulatory frameworks.
3• Both Governments have agreed to reduced restrictions on foreigndirect investments.Data sourcesYou are advised to include data within your assessment submission. Data onrecent industry level imports and exports can be downloaded from the ‘WorldIntegrated Trade Solution’ database. (https://wits.worldbank.org/). You areadvised start with this data and to avoid data published in newspapers andsimilar sources. Data on product ‘STIC Rev2 Groups’ from the World Bank islikely to be useful in answering this assessment.
Comprehensive Free Trade Deal with India
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Comprehensive Free Trade Deal with India
The 21st-century global economy is characterised by interconnectivity and dynamic trade partnerships, making international agreements crucial for economic growth and stability. In this context, the United Kingdom's pursuit of a comprehensive free trade agreement with India is a significant milestone in shaping the nation's economic landscape. As two economic powerhouses, the UK and India hold immense potential for mutual collaboration, offering unique opportunities and challenges across various sectors. Against the backdrop of a post-Brexit era and evolving global trade dynamics, understanding the potential beneficiaries and losers becomes imperative for policymakers, businesses, and academics alike.
The Comprehensive Free Trade Deal
The UK-India Free Trade Agreement marks a significant step toward enhancing economic cooperation between the two nations. This section provides a detailed overview of the critical provisions of the agreement and their implications on bilateral trade dynamics. One of the central aspects of the trade agreement is the substantial reduction of tariffs on exported and imported goods. This reduction fosters a more competitive market, encouraging increased trade between the UK and India. By eliminating or minimising tariffs on essential products, both countries aim to enhance market access and stimulate economic activity (Department for International Trade, 2023).
The agreement emphasises improved mutual recognition of qualifications, enabling professionals from various sectors such as healthcare, education, and engineering to practice in both countries seamlessly. This provision facilitates the exchange of skills and expertise and supports the growth of service-based industries, contributing to economic diversification (Department for International Trade, 2023). Both governments have agreed to reduce restrictions on FDI, allowing businesses to invest more freely in each other's economies. This encourages cross-border investments, technology transfers, and joint ventures, fostering innovation and industry growth. Relaxed FDI restrictions can particularly benefit technology-driven sectors, where collaborations and acquisitions in research and development are paramount (Department for International Trade, 2023).
The trade agreement also emphasises strategic collaboration in emerging industries such as renewable energy, digital technologies, and biotechnology. By promoting joint ventures and knowledge exchange in these sectors, both countries can leverage each other's expertise, leading to innovative solutions and sustainable economic development. This strategic focus aligns with the global shift toward green technologies and digital transformation, positioning both nations as leaders in these fields (Department for International Trade, 2023). Understanding these key provisions gives us insights into the foundational elements shaping the UK-India Free Trade Agreement.
Beneficiary Industries
The comprehensive free trade agreement opens doors for the UK's financial services sector, allowing seamless transactions and investments between the UK and India. With the relaxation of regulations, UK-based financial institutions can expand their services in the Indian market. This sector, which contributed £132 billion to the UK's economy in 2020 (ONS, 2020), is likely to grow substantially due to increased investments and collaborations (Department for International Trade, 2023). The IT industry, a cornerstone of the UK's digital economy, is poised to benefit significantly from the trade agreement. With its skilled workforce and technology expertise, India presents collaboration opportunities in software development, cybersecurity, and data analytics. The UK's IT sector, generating £87 billion in GVA in 2020 (ONS, 2020), can explore joint ventures and knowledge exchange, fostering innovation and creating high-value job opportunities (Department for International Trade, 2023).
The education and healthcare sectors, crucial for societal development, can flourish through this agreement. In 2020, the education sector contributed £22.8 billion to the UK economy, and healthcare activities contributed £27.9 billion (ONS, 2020). UK universities can collaborate with Indian counterparts, promoting student exchanges and research collaborations. With mutual recognition of qualifications, healthcare professionals can work seamlessly across borders, addressing skill shortages and enhancing healthcare services (Department for International Trade, 2023). These collaborations not only elevate the quality of education and healthcare but also contribute to economic growth by attracting international students and medical tourists
The manufacturing industry plays a crucial role in the UK economy. In 2020, manufacturing contributed £191 billion to the UK's economy (ONS, 2020). While the textile and manufacturing sectors face challenges due to increased competition from Indian imports, strategic partnerships can mitigate these issues. UK manufacturers can explore joint ventures with Indian counterparts, focusing on specialised products. Additionally, by leveraging sustainable practices and innovative technologies, UK manufacturers can enhance their competitiveness, catering to niche markets and ensuring long-term viability (Department for International Trade, 2023).
Table SEQ Table \* ARABIC 1: Key beneficiaries from the UK - India Trade Agreement
Industry
Contribution to the UK Economy (2020, in £ billion)
Expected Growth Rate (due to Trade Agreement)
Key Impact Indicators
Sources
Financial Services
£132
6% annual growth rate
Job creation, Increased FDI, Enhanced service exports
ONS (2020), UK Department for International Trade (2023)
Information Technology
£87
8% annual growth rate
Innovation, Skilled job creation, Technology exports
ONS (2020), UK Department for International Trade (2023)
Education
£22.8
10% increase in international student enrolments
Research collaborations, Skill development, Cultural exchange
ONS (2020), UK Department for International Trade (2023)
Healthcare
£27.9
12% increase in medical tourism
Quality healthcare services, Research partnerships
ONS (2020), UK Department for International Trade (2023)
Manufacturing
£191
5% growth in specialised product exports
Sustainable practices, Niche market creation
ONS (2020), UK Department for International Trade (2023)
The Figures are in £ billion. Expected growth rates are hypothetical and based on industry trends and market analysis. Specific sources for each data point are indicated in the "Sources" column.
Loser Industries
The UK's agricultural sector might face challenges due to increased competition from Indian agrarian products. The industry, valued at £10.3 billion in 2020, stands vulnerable to increased competition from cheaper Indian produce after the UK-India Free Trade Agreement (ONS, 2020). To mitigate these challenges, the UK can focus on promoting organic and locally sourced products. Government subsidies and investments in sustainable farming practices can enhance productivity, ensuring domestic farmers can compete effectively. Additionally, targeted marketing campaigns emphasising the quality and freshness of local produce can create a niche market, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers (Department for International Trade, 2023).
Industries producing goods similar to those in India, such as textiles and electronics, need innovative strategies to remain competitive. Collaborative research and development initiatives can lead to the creation of unique, high-value products. Embracing automation and Industry 4.0 technologies can enhance efficiency, reduce production costs, and improve product quality. Moreover, investment in employee training and upskilling can enhance the work...
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