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Intelligence Analysis Project: Policymaking in Iran

Coursework Instructions:

Project Assignment.

Purpose: to demonstrate analytic ability (for you should be able at this point to do the appropriate thinking) but rather your ability to set up a problem, identify what you need, and how you would solve the problem using a structured method. You are given a list of 7 intelligence questions and you are expected to respond to 4 of them for this project.

List associated PIRs/EEIs

Then identify what methods you would use to answer the problem and subproblems and explain why these methods are the best and most appropriate to answer the questions(!).

You must select 4 out of the following 7 problems to address for this assignment:
1) To what extent is Iran influencing policymaking by the Lebanese government and political leadership?
2) A car struck a prominent Russian opposition leader while she was crossing a busy London street. Who is responsible?
3) China is developing a new all-weather stealth combat aircraft. To what extent has its performance, design, and capability been a result of espionage against the United States?
4) The US is considering dramatically expanding anti-Russian propaganda operations in the Ukraine and Eastern/Central Europe. How is Vladimir Putin likely to respond?
5) The government of Djibouti is considering restoring diplomatic relations with Iran, which were cut in 2016. What potential threats does this pose to US intelligence operations stationed in or supported by US installations in Djibouti?
6) The US is considering a covert operation to destabilize the government of Venezuela with the hopes this would provoke the downfall of the current regime. What are the risks to such an operation and what might be the unintended consequences of such an operation?
7) What are the expected social, economic, and consequent political effects of COVID-19 on India currently and in the coming year?

Your submission should be in table form and not exceed two pages per intelligence problem. Each table should list the primary intelligence problem (given below). In your table, you must break down the primary problem into its components, then listing Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs) / Essential Elements of Information (EEIs) for each component question. PIRs may be considered "general statements of intelligence need" or generalized questions about the operating environment (Curtis E. Lemay Center 2015).

The PIRs should then be the driving force for your more specific EEIs. You should identify the analytic methods you would recommend using to analyze the information to answer the overall question. Finally, you need to explain why those methods are appropriate.

Your submission will be graded using the following rubric (see rubric chart below):
break the intelligence problem into component questions,
articulate Priority Intelligence Requirements and Essential Elements of Information,
identify intelligence analysis methods that you recommend to address the problems (based on the type of information you identify and the nature of the question),
provide a textual explanation of why you chose the methods you did and what you can expect by using the methods,
completion of 1-4 above for 4 of the 7 problems listed below, and
demonstration that you have read, understood and used the required readings
(NOTE: any submission which does not pursue the purpose of this assignment--structuring an intelligence question for analysis--will be considered "off-topic" and will be assessed a zero).

A few important thoughts:

No one method can stand alone as an adequate method. It takes looking at the problem from more than one approach to get a meaningful view of the solution to the problem. You should list the methods that you would recommend and in a few words identify what the method would achieve. (You may choose whatever format you think works best to communicate these ideas.) Further, the questions below are broad and general. If you need to make assumptions to help you address each problem please document your assumptions (this is more important than you may at first think).

Feel free to draw on any method you are aware of and if you have questions on this please reach out, that's what I'm here for. If you are concerned that I may not recognize your method, please provide a footnote explaining.

It is not possible to list all PIRs/EEIs so it is impossible to be complete given the time available for this assignment. However, I will evaluate your selection of component intelligence questions, intelligence requirements, and the centrality of the methods you recommend in addressing the core nature of the problem.

Be sure that it is clear which methods address which subproblems.

For example:

Problem: The US has become aware that the Pakistanis have provided missile technology to Yemen. This point is confirmed. However, it is unclear what the Yemenis are intending to do with the technology. What is the outlook for this development?
Subproblems: What technology was transferred? What threats does this pose to the region, and does this change the regional balance of power? What is the likelihood that Yemen will reexport this technology to substate groups or states that pose a threat to US interests?



Coursework Sample Content Preview:

Intelligence Analysis Project
Name
Institution
Course Name
Course Code
Instructor
Date
1 To what extent is Iran influencing policymaking by the Lebanese government and political leadership?
Problem: Iran wants to overtake the Lebanese government. The Lebanese depend on Iran on the military, and most of its decision comes from Iran.

Sub-Problems:
1 Does the Lebanese government feel anything about being controlled?
2 How can the Lebanese administration perform an investigation and produce a strong proof on government operations in the country?
3 What are the main identifying and comparative factors that have been utilized to demonstrate that Lebanese cannot run itself without Iran's interference?
4 Has the Iran quest on election and military assault had any impact on the government's operations?
5 Is it shown that Iran acts as the only one that poses a threat to the military, or does it also include that they will be attacked with the withdrawal of the military?
6 Was there any ideal technique employed to describe the Lebanese as crooked one? If that's the case, what kind of methods were used?

List of associated P.R.I.s and E.E.I.s:
1 1. When evaluating the government relationships, it is posing a threat to the central authority; it is important to identify those engaging in the abovementioned ethnic groups. To accomplish so, the discovery and justifying procedure should be used in conjunction with research and previously given information. This is the primary tool for determining ethnicity's actual danger to Iran and the Lebanese central government. Furthermore, most international organizations are involved anytime there is a rivalry between countries acts committed simultaneously. As a result, determining the country or nation and other parties involved in rivalry is critical. If they are Iran and Lebanese, it will be easy to identify the true nature of the incident they pose, demonstrating that rivalry is a source of worry for the country.
2 One cannot disagree that rivalry among countries threatens the central authority. Still, the terrorist operations have not been linked to any terrorist organization affiliated with any local or foreign foe of Lebanese. Clear and factual proof gathered by Lebanese agencies indicating that military activities in Lebanese must also be reviewed through an election of a new leader. To get a comprehensive answer, extensive benchmarking is required and an adequate explanation of the results regarding who is associated with government management. Considering that law enforcement authorities are responsible for apprehending rivalry related to terror acts and terrorist activities, the central government's current good governance is maintained by adopting a proper and justifiable approach.
3 The rationale underlying Iran's government intervention must be determined. To accomplish this, an appropriate identification procedure must be used . Agents inside the government must be identified, and their motivations must be revealed as well. This is crucial in determining the actual danger of Iran's military participation in the central government. Perhaps this will also aid in the prevention of any future risks that may arise while attempting to solve the situation at hand.[Brown, Greg, and Marketta Kyttä. "Key issues and priorities in participatory mapping: Toward integration or increased specialization?." Applied Geography 95 (2018): 1-8.]
4 Other non-terrorist activities that may be functioning in tandem with terrorism to harm the national government must also be identified. These may be politically charged items found in the government, and internal factors might be at work, posing substantial and complex issues. As a result, these issues must be identified as quickly as possible to aid in the resolution of the issue of terrorism producing destabilization within the central government. This would also assist in avoiding any insecurity or doubt when doing the terrorist study.[Dafoe, Allan. "A.I. governance: a research agenda." Governance of A.I. Program, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford: Oxford, UK 1442 (2018): 1443.]
5 Another option to overcome the problem is searching for the significant intelligence released by other foreign agencies not affiliated with the Lebanese government. External intelligence is less biased and more accurate.

Methods used to answer the problems and the sub-problems:
Approaches to apply to address all of the issues described above have been detailed in the list of P.R.I.s and E.E.I.s shown above. Some of them are as described below:
* The Process of identifying and justifying: This approach would assist in defining the sort of terrorist attacks and the individuals that participated. It would aid in determining if terrorism exists and, if so, what kind of terrorist actions are hurting the Lebanon government.
* Benchmarking (in-depth) and justifying the results acquired: All required is proof to establish anything from who is responsible for why and how it might be resolved.
* Identifying motivational and internal agencies involved: We have already been discussed.
* Furthermore, a qualitative, correlational analysis was conducted between data provided by intelligence officials affiliated with the Lebanese government and evidence supplied by intelligence agencies unaffiliated with Lebanese: It will reduce bias and increase the dependability of the data and proof acquired.

2 The U.S. is considering a covert operation to destabilize the government of Venezuela with the hopes this would provoke the downfall of the current regime. What are the risks to such an operation, and what might be the unintended consequences?
Problem: The political situation in Venezuela remains unknown with the collapse-Operation-Libertad, a civil-military revolution against the Nicolas-Maduro regime on April 30, 2019. Venezuela's-economy is also failing, causing widespread humanitarian suffering and large-scale refugee migrations to neighboring countries. The hemisphere's stability is threatened by the possibility of state collapse and the spillover consequences of the humanitarian crisis and instability.

Sub-Problems:
1 What type of civil war is Venezuela experiencing?
2 For how long has it raged, and who leads them?
3 Is there any proof that the civil war that is thought to have resulted in the new regime exists? If it does exist, what results suggest that the U.S.A. will impact the economy?
4 Was there sufficient evidence to suggest that radical figures in the new administration promote anti-U.S beliefs?
5 .Given the facts, what anti-Nicolas is the new regime's new leader instilling in Venezuela civilians to support activities such as destroying the government and condoning or perhaps assisting the civil war?
6 What evidence has been presented to suggest that the leadership is poised to control the new regime?

List of associated P.R.I.s and E.E.I.s:
1 The current civil conflict in Venezuela poses a significant threat to the Venezuelan government. Political instability has resulted from the civil war, and the government has turned unstable as a result. It would be unable to maintain control over its military while simultaneously protecting its citizens. The United States Constitution is no longer valid. According to a study issued by the C.I.A. in 2018, this has been validated. This has prompted most foreign activists to embrace the present civil war, which promotes anti-American ideas. It is, nevertheless, critical to identify such individuals who are associated with the Venezuelan government. This might be accomplished by employing a proper and thorough benchmark for the Venezuelan government. Anyone who opposes the current administration should be regarded as expansionist and sympathetic. This is the initial step towards resolving the issue.[Antonopoulos, Paul, and Drew Cottle. "Venezuela's 2017 Crisis: A Failed Bolivarian Experiment or a Legitimate Claim of U.S. Imperialism?." Critique 46, no. 1 (2018): 49-64.] [Robins, Philip. A history of Jordan. Cambridge University Press, 2019.]
2 Within the Venezuelan government, all agents and leaders that push for anti-nationalism should be sought out.
3 All anti-national agents and leaders should be apprehended. A comprehensive inquiry should be undertaken against them to determine whether they are responsible for increasing the elected leaders. Before they are arrested, their participation in such actions must be evident in a court of law.
4 To identify all extremist leaders who oppose the country's values. Immediately as they are apprehended, the government will strategically guarantee that the leaders' actions do not succeed. If the Venezuelan government fails to act, it should seek assistance from other international organizations and nations with similar interests.[Malet, David. "Countering violent extremism: assessment in theory and practice." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism 16, no. 1 (2021): 58-74.]
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