Critical Thinking Exercise using Logical, Statistical, and Mathematical Skills

MS 207 END-OF-COURSE CRITICAL THINKING EXERCISE
1. Determine if any of the monthly revenue values is a statistical outlier to the data set.
* [III] Select a statistical procedure to determine if the set of gross income figures contains
an outlier. What procedure did you select?
I selected the IQR method of identifying outliers.
* [III] What did you decide about an outlier in the data set?
The dataset did not contain any outlier
* [III] If you found an outlier, should that value be included in projection calculations?
If I found an outlier, I would only include it in the project calculations after further investigating and ensuring that it is not due to seasonal factors, data entry, or measurement errors.
* [I] Enter the 5-number summary for the income data set.
Min: _____$7,090____
Q1: _____$7,729____
Median: ___$8,510______
Q3: ______$9,270____
Max: ___$9,720_____
* [I] Is there a Mode in the data set?
There is no mode in the dataset
* [I] Compute the Mean of the income data set.
The mean of the income dataset is $8,456.44
2. You now have the mean and the 5-number summary.
* [III] If you were to use one of these six statistics [5-number summary and mean] to predict the October gross revenue, which one would you use?
I would use the mean to predict the October gross revenue.
* [II] And why?
Because it is a measure that represents the entire dataset when there are no outliers or when the data is not skewed
3. Now for a prediction about the January gross revenue estimate. Select a mathematical linear
model for the data set, based on the 9-month data [suggest you use the past January as month
zero].
* [I] Name your variables with their symbols.
Dependent Variable- Gross revenue in $
Independent Variable- Months – starting with month zero as previous January
* [I] Write your linear equation:
y = 203.13x + 7440.8
Where y is the predicted revenue, and x is the month
* [I] Predict the revenue in the coming January [month 12 if you made the previous January your month zero in you calculations], using your linear equation.
Predicted Revenue = 203.13(12) + 7440.8 = 9878.36
Predicted revenue in the coming January is $9,878
Continued next page.
4. Which of the following Problem-Solving Strategies did you use in this process?
a. [III] Circle or highlight the applicable ones.
b. [II] And explain why and how [write your explanations below each selected strategy{s}.
* Draw a Picture
Drawing a picture helps in understanding the problem better. Having a visual representation of a particular problem helps me organize it and make connections that could not have been seen. I drew a picture of the box plot to visually understand the 5-number summary.
* Choose names for unknowns
* Use an established system
* Look for patterns
Looking for patterns helps us to know how things work and how they are connected. Patterns tell us how a group of objects or values acts in the same way. This relationship allows us to solve problems by shortening the number of steps it takes to get to a solution. I used this strategy on the problem of the prediction about the January gross revenue estimate. I constructed a line plot to establish and display patterns over m...