Most Preferred Tools for Depicting Probability Distribution

CASE STUDY ANALYSIS: QUESTIONS
1 Create a program evaluation and review technique (PERT), Gantt, or critical path method (CPM) network diagram for this project. Which path do you expect to be the critical path, and what is its expected completion time?
2 What are the process resource allocations and your recommended monitoring processes?
3 How might the project manager at Nutristar incorporate simulation analysis into his or her risk analysis process?
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NUTRISTAR ENERGY INC. CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
The Nutristar Energy Inc. Case study presents a scenario where the project manager has to plan and facilitate the reconstruction project. According to Weiszenbacher (2016) project management requires resource management, planning and knowledge of project planning tools. As the project owner at Nutristar, i will use the Critical Path Method (CPM) network diagram to present a clear resource allocation strategy to the management. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is a technique for measuring the time element of construction projects. It uses project task completion time to determine the probability of the project getting completed within a specified duration. The network diagram shows the critical path and what is needed to finish the project on schedule. Besides, resources have been allocated to various project components based on the Nutristar Energy Case Study found in Meredith, Mantel & Shafer, 2018, pg. 342. The CPM network diagram is shown in Figure 1.
Qn1.1 Recommended monitoring processes.
1 Change Requests
Change requesting is a critical monitoring process since change is inevitable during implementation. This process will handle changes arising during project implementation, including additions and subtractions to specifications, policies, and procedures (Jian et al., 2018).
2 Preventive Action
This monitoring process is preventive rather than proactive. It entails correcting possible deviations from expected performance benchmarks. These include changing vendors, cross-skilling teams, and managing integrated change control (Jian et al., 2018).
3 Defect repair/reworking action
This monitoring action involves repair work or simply reworking the project component to produce desired output or merely to meet the project specifications. The project management plan, baselines, policies, and procedures among other project specifications, can change during implementation. Subsequently, the project will have to go through an integrated change control process (Jian et al., 2018).
How might the project manager at Nutristar incorporate simulation analysis into his or her risk analysis process?
He can use a quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques such as deterministic risk simulation that underscores the best case scenario, worst case, and most likely case scenario analysis in spreadsheets. Besides, he can use a stochastic risk analysis approach to conduct risk simulation. Monte Carlo simulation, a stochastic technique, will be used to uncertain input inputs into a spreadsheet model based on a range of possible values, better known as probability distributions (Weiszenbacher, 2016). Project variables will be assigned different probabilities to mimic probable project outcomes. Probability distribution will be used to describe uncertainty in the risk variables. Besides, two probability distribution models will be used, namely PERT and CPM. In the Project Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), minimum, most probable, and maximum values are defined where the most probable values are those that have a higher probability of occurring (Ward & Chapman, 2003). Hence PERT will be used to describe the duration of each project task. Both stochastic (Monte Carlo) and deterministic simulation models will be used to analyze project risks. Both Monte Carlo and deterministic project risk simulation techniques provide a wide range of probable outcomes and the probabilities for tasks, actions, or decisions made. Furthermore, it includes possible consequences for unplanned actions taken mid-way during project implementation (Weiszenbacher, 2016).
The project manager will use excel spreadsheets to perform simulation risk analysis. Alternatively, deterministic risk analysis will be used to model project risks in the excel spreadsheet. The Monte Carlo simulation is accessible in excel using the @RISK, which creates new functions for analyzing probability distribution and analyzing output results (Jian et al., 2018). Monte Carlo is preferred over deterministic simulati...